Time For Us, and Everybody Else, To Bet The Super Bowl.

Featured, Sports and Bets — January 31, 2014 at 7:14 pm by

Everybody wants action on the Super Bowl.  Whether it’s by placing a regular bet, a prop bet, or by being in the office block pool, it feels like everyone is in. It’s impossible to calculate exactly how much money is riding on this game, but when my Grandmother informs me that she has Broncos 5 and Seahawks 4 in the Golden Years assisted living pool, I figure this country has exactly a shit-ton of cash on this game.  Which brings us to us.  Babes and Seabass have been in the lab dissecting this difficult to dissect matchup.  Coming into the Super Bowl, Babes is an impressive 8-2 in the playoffs, while Seabass sits at 6-4, barely ahead of the vigorish.  But no more chit-chat, time to dive into the deep end of that handicapping pool that is the Super Bowl.

Babes

The big game is now just two days away and time to get down to brass tax.  The line has been steady between two, and two and a half points, for almost a week in favor of Denver.  The public is all over its darling offensive poster-boy Peyton Manning, while the wise guys are taking the Seahawks.
I figure this game is going to come down to the last possession.  I’m predicting one of the best Super Bowl games ever played and I’m gonna take Seattle 21-20.  This game is so hard to call, Seattle pound for pound is the better team, but Denver’s number 1 player, Mr. Manning, makes up for the first ten Seattle players because he is that good.  That’s what makes this game so hard to handicap;  is Peyton Manning’s will to further entrench his name in NFL history enough to overcome Denver’s obvious talent disadvantage? On one hand my instincts tell me that Peyton won’t lose, but my mind has me convinced Seattle is the play.
I heard a very interesting perspective the other day on the radio from Bill Polian.  He was talking about the use of metrics in determining the outcome of games and he produced a stat that pointed out that teams who have the statistical advantage in these particular four categories have a ninety percent chance of winning the game.  The categories, in no particular order, are turnover margin, rushing attempts, points allowed, and yards per attempt allowed.  Well Seattle was better in all four categories than Denver this year.  Every single reputable metrics system has Seattle as the superior team.  However, metrics are far from the only determining factor in deciding games, it’s really about the matchups, and I’m loving the matchups for Seattle more and more everyday.  The way to screw up Manning is to get pressure with your front four, and be physical.  That’s how New England was able to get the best of Manning all those years back in Indy, and that’s how teams that defeated Denver this year did it. Seattle had the best secondary in the NFL to match up against the best receiving core in football, and they have the horses up front to get after Manning and make him uncomfortable.  If Manning is uncomfortable in the pocket he will force balls into coverage that Seattle’s playmaking secondary will take advantage of.
On the offensive side of the ball for Seattle, having Percy Harvin back playing in whatever capacity is a huge plus.  Of course Marshawn Lynch will factor greatly in the outcome of this game.  If he can move the ball effectively and allow the Seahawks to control the clock, that will go a long way in contributing to the outcome of the game in Seattle’s favor.


I’m going to include a very attractive teaser in addition to my play on Seattle.  In a two team teaser I’ll take Seattle up to plus 8 and under 54 points in the game.  Seattle has not lost a game by more than seven points in forty-four ball football games.  That’s almost three seasons worth of games that Seattle hasn’t been blown out.  Their defense is too good.  I like the under because I feel both teams will want to control the clock and not want to make any mistakes.
Let’s be honest, all the pressure in this game is squarely on Peyton Manning’s shoulders.  That also favors Seattle in my mind because they can go in and play loose like they have nothing to lose.  When the final whistle blows, I feel Seattle will be the ones with their hands grasping the Lombardi trophy, sorry Peyton.

Seabass

Well here it is, Super Bowl weekend.  The game itself couldn’t be better, the two best teams are in New York and they are good at historic levels.  The Broncos feature what is probably the best offense in league history and the Seahawks boast one of the greatest pass defenses to ever step on a football field.  This game is a classic strength on strength matchup and one that is probably going to live up to all the pre-game hype.

Seattle seems to be the obvious play here.  They are big enough and brutal enough to matchup with anybody and they are completely healthy, while Denver is facing a ton of injury issues on the defensive side of the football.  Sure, the D has stepped up for the Broncos during this little playoff run, but who have they really played?  Both New England and San Diego were banged up messes coming into their games with Denver and neither team plays as physical a brand of football as the Seahawks do.  And like Babes said, all the pressure is on Manning and company to cement Peyton’s own legacy.  (Why it needs any more cementing is beyond me.)  It seems almost too easy to take the points and go run and hide with them.

Which is why I’m taking the Broncos.  This is purely a hunch play.  Sure, I could bore you with why I think Denver will beat the Seattle 4-3 Under defense, but, OK I will.  Seattle runs the 4-3 Under D.  The base formation of which is to have 4 down lineman shifted to the weak side with the Sam, or strong side linebacker, lined up over the tight end.  It really looks like a 5-2 in it’s purest form.  The linemen, linebackers, and strong safety are all assigned a gap and are supposed to attack that gap with extreme prejudice; so at its core it is a one gap defense as opposed to a 2 gap defense where linemen are responsible for 2 gaps and a man.   The secondary, meanwhile is in a 3 deep zone, but the Seahawks twist this by playing man to man on the outside with their corners.  Of course they also may line up differently in different situations, but you get the general idea.  The thing about this defense that is so interesting is that the Seahawks rarely change coverage looks.  They don’t need to because their corners win a lot on the outside in man to man, and their safety, Earl Thomas, is capable of handling the unenviable task of being a free safety in a 4-3 Under.  In other words, they’ve got the horses to run the race, they don’t need tricks.  They don’t feel that they need to disguise looks or try to confuse people because they physically win matchups and beat other teams up.  That’s why they got so much swag, they just line up and play ball.  It’s a physically dominating arrogance and it’s that arrogance that will spell their doom.

 

Peyton Manning will carve this defense up.  By using trips formations and flooding zones, the Broncos will be happy to dink and dunk their way down the field; and with Tight End Julian Thomas, the Broncos will take their shots down the middle against this cover-3.  Because that’s what you do against a cover 3, you go vertical down the seam.  Thomas is a beast, and is physically able to make the play that so many others haven’t even tried on this defense.  If Thomas has a big day, it’s a Denver win.  I also think the Broncos, with their talented guard combination, will be able to keep the Seahawks from rushing hard up the middle.  Ends rarely get to Manning due to his footwork and his ability to simply step up in the pocket and throw darts and ducks.  Also, I think Denver will have success rushing the ball, especially behind those guards.

Manning can beat this defense.  Five players scored 10 or more touchdowns this year for Denver, I don’t think Seattle’s fourth and fifth cover man can cover this talented group, and Peyton will find the mismatch.

On the other side of things, I won’t break it down simply because I’ve jabbered enough, and because frankly, it’s the side of the ball no one really cares about.  This game’s hype is all about Peyton vs Sherman.   I do think the Denver D can hold its own enough for the victory.  Seattle doesn’t impress me outside, even with Harvin back, he’s simply missed too much time.  Marshawn Lynch will Beast Mode, of this I have no doubt, but I feel this group of rag-tag journeymen will do enough for Peyton and his crew to outscore the Hawks.

It’s Peyton’s year, don’t fight it.  Lay the points, Denver wins a classic 28-24.

 

2 Comments

  1. So Russel Wilson wasn’t mentioned once? Pretty rude not to even give a honorable mention to a man that has his team in the S Bowl.

  2. The Over is the play…..neither of you like it…..so it’s the play

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