The Smell Of Horsecrap and Money: Saturday Stakes Action at Pimlico. Plus Early Kentucky Derby Thoughts

Featured, Sports and Bets — April 26, 2014 at 7:26 am by

Pimlico and her prancing ponies have not been kind to me so far this spring.  Two weeks ago I was saved by the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland, but last week we stuck exclusively with Old Hilltop, and her and her horses chewed me up and spit me out.  Kid Cruz did come through for me in the Frederico Tesio, pulling away easily and winning for fun, but a $4.40 horse isn’t going to send anybody out a big winner, especially when that $4.40 horse is the only winner of the day.

But nobody said this game was easy.  Losing is part of the deal.  If you can’t handle the bad times, well, then get the fu#k outta here.

 

Speaking of Kid Cruz, here he is winning the Frederico Tesio last week.  I love this horse and I have a feeling he will be a factor in the Preakness.

Speaking of the Preakness and the Triple Crown, the Kentucky Derby is now only a week away.  The qualified horses for the country’s most prestigious race are beginning to make their way to Churchill Downs.  The favorite, California Chrome, looks incredibly solid.  There’s no doubt that he’s the best horse in the race, but the Derby, with its large twenty horse field, is a fickle contest.  If the best horse catches a bad post and gets caught behind a wall of horses, being the best won’t mean squat.  But considering his talent level and considering his past victories (and losses), he’s as solid a Derby favorite as I’ve seen since Big Brown in 2008.

We, of course, will break down the Derby and pick our official winner next week.

But back to this week and Pimlico.  The MJC is offering a nice racing card this Saturday. It may rain a little starting around 4 o’clock, but otherwise conditions should be fast and firm.  The Geisha Stakes is the featured race this week.  Let’s go get ’em…..

Pimlico

Race 1 ALW5kS– Jockey Victor R Carrasco and Trainer Michael Gorham have gotten together to race 12 horses in 2013-2014.  They have won five of those races.  Winning at 42% is real pleasant, and they look to have another live one for today’s opener.  #6 Singing My Way has won five in a row to start 2014.  Even money second choice will try to go wire to wire.  Perfect season on the line.  2nd- #1 Regal Warrior  3rd- #8 Face The Fire

Race 2 MDN 8k– All seven maidens (meaning they have never won a race) in this race lost their last race by a combined 192 lengths.  The favorite, #1 Scienzato  lost his last race by 21 lengths.  I can’t bet this freakin’ mess.  Ok, who am I kidding, I’ll just put small win bets on the 3 biggest longshots.  Crap shoot.

Race 3 CLM4500– #6 Political Miss.  Trainer Jaime Ness had claimed this horse a few times and has seemed to fair pretty well with her.  In the mess that is this low-level claimer, we’ll stick with something we think we know.  2nd- #3 Wild Concorde 3rd- #10 Sister Sharon

Race 4 AOC 40k– At a track like Gulfstream, a race like this would feature a full field of quality claimers.  Here is gets 5 horses.  Maybe that’s due to the presence of the #4 Wonderfella.  This guy just broke his maiden, but he may be too talented for the rest of these.  Chalk talk.  2nd- #3 Starship Ace 3rd- #2 Tiger

Race 5 MSW 4ok–  There are plenty of bettable youngsters in this protected maiden affair.  We want some value and I’m hunting for a longshot. The #10 Nighttiming is an intriguing prospect.  Love the move down the stretch in the last and love the fact that they are moving him back into protected racing.  Pedigree to contend with these.  Hugh McMahon is a soild train. Will be rolling late. 15-1 odds a juicy.   Cue the Biggie Smalls…

2nd- #1 Acquant  3rd #3 Forbidden Drive

Race #6 ALW 42k-  #5 After the Bell.  Nice drive to win his last and like how his form is cycling back up.  Looks ready to get that elusive allowance win.  Will try to run down the #4 late. 2nd- #4 He’s Achance  3rd- #7 Tooth and Claw

Race #7 CLM 25K– The #4 This is Nice just hasn’t fared very well since coming to the States.  Today this heavy favorite drops down the claiming ranks even further.  I try to always beat this kind of horse, a heavy favorite who is dropping to try to find a win.  I’ll take an up and comer any day over a horse dropping down because of bad form.  The #2 Exchange Student saw a nice Beyer Jump when coming back to the grass in last.  Maybe she’ll make another move forward, at 5-1 I’m hoping she finally gets it.  Nice middle move in last and had to come three wide.  I’m not oozing with confidence, but what the hell.

2nd- This Is Nice 3rd- #7 Tiara Gold

Time for a hot chick pic…..

Race 8 The Geisha Stakes–   Addison Run burned me last time in a 25k AOC.  She’s got the most talent potential here and her works suggest a big effort.  But she’s not bettable at 7-5.  So I’ll go with 5-1 shot #3 Steady N Love.  I get value, Capuano, and our boy Carrasco.  Worth a chance, but watch, Addison Run will end up winning, much to my chagrin.  3rd-  #2 Celtic Kate

Race 9 ALW42k–  I love the turf sprints.  #10 Bert B Don has won 10 times in his career and four of those time have been in turf sprints.  He’s had some time off, this is his ’14 debut, but his works look solid and he seems well placed.  2nd- #7 Make My Saturday  3rd- #6 Bowman’s Boy

Race 10- As usual, you figure it out.  You’re probably better off anyway, what with the way my spring at Pimlico is going so far.  Or just buy the Stable Boy picks card on your way in, babes.

Good Luck and have fun!

 

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