The Florida Derby: Time To Get Paid Baby!

Featured, Sports and Bets — March 28, 2013 at 11:05 pm by

by Seabass

The Florida Derby              

Shanghai Bobby

Shanghai Bobby

It’s time for the Florida Derby.  One of the most important Kentucky Derby prep races, the Florida Derby always seems to feature a Triple Crown favorite among its runners.  This year the field in Florida can boast three such horses.  The field of ten includes Itsmyluckyday and Shanghai Bobby, who finished 1-2 in the Grade 3 Holy Bull, and Orb, who won the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth. Shanghai Bobby is also the reigning two-year -old champion and his win at the Breeder’s Cup featured a  hard-fought  stretch battle in which Shanghai Bobby fell behind and then rallied back for the win.  He tries hard every time, and I love horses like that, but there may be some distance limitations when it comes to Shanghai Bobby, so we’ll have to handicap accordingly. More on that later.

The 13 race card at Gulfstream Park is loaded Saturday.  Besides the Grade 1 Florida Derby there are four Grade 3 races and the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks.    It will be 75 and sunny down in Hallandale, so the weather won’t play a factor.  I’ll start with the 8th race.  Gulfstream is a great place and this is my favorite Derby prep.  Let’s go get ’em.

8th Race Grade 2 Gulfstream Oaks:  This race features a rematch between Dreaming of Julia and Live Lively.  Live Lively got loose on the lead in their last meeting and won pretty handily, posting a 96 Beyer in the process.  But this time, the #1 Cue The Moon will be gunning for that lead too, and Live Lively won’t be left alone.  Dreaming of Julia will probably be over bet as a result of this. So we’ll look elsewhere.  I like the #6 Emollient.  Trained by Bill Mott, this Miss looks ready to roll, and she gets reunited with jockey Jose Lezcano, who rode her to a 98 Beyer win back in September.  Her stalking style fits the race and her post position.  Hopefully Julia takes a lot of cash and we can get 3 or 4-1.

9th Race Grade 3 Orchid:  The #5 Starformer and the #7 Aigue Marine will be the two favorites in here, but I’m looking for some value in this race.  Starformer likes to be up front and I think she’ll have some company up there with Seanchi and Closing Range in the field.  Aingue Marine is the next logical choice but I’m digging deeper with the #6 Irish Mission.   She’s won over $800k, and while most of  that money was earned in restricted races,  she’s posted Beyers good enough to win here, and she has won at the 1-1/2 mile distance before.  Second time off layoff,  Johnny Velazquez,  and 6-1 odds all add to the appeal.  Bet her to win and up and down in exactas with the 5 and 7.

10th Race Grade 3 Skip Away:   The pick four start with this tough one.  You can make a case for several horses in this deep field.  Take Charge Indy, Pants on Fire, and Cigar Street all have appeal.  Hell even the import Al Qasr seems intriguing.  But I’m going with the #3 Golden Ticket.   I like how this colt is already three races into his 4-year-old campaign.  He’s in good form and even though he faded in the stretch in the Mineshaft I feel he’s ready to pop. It’s gonna be an interesting race for sure, and for Golden Ticket to win I might need  #8 Take Charge Indy to go to the front early to challenge Cigar Street.  If they let Cigar Street go out on his own, I may be screwed.  But I think Golden Ticket may end up 6-1 or better, so I’m willing to risk it at those odds.  Win bet and exactas with the three other contenders.

11th Race Grade 3 The Appleton:  Great betting race, cause this sucker is wide open.  I’m looking for value, and I hope I get it with the #7 Silver Max.  This talented 4-year-old is coming off a long layoff, but Dale Romans seems confident enough in his ability to put him in this tough spot.  This colt has won multiple graded stakes races and has a steady, if not spectacular,  work tab.  Morning Line odds are 6-1 and  I’m in.  Like him in exactas with the 3, 4 and 9.                                                                                                                                    

Itsmyluckyday

Itsmyluckyday

12th Race The Florida Derby:  I love Shanghai Bobby.  But he ain’t winning this race.  It’smylucky day  just looks too good.  Orb merits consideration, but I just think the #3 is going on to bigger and better things.  He’s my pick and my single in the Pick 4.

13th Race Allowance N1x:  Bombs away.  I’m going with the #7 Memories Made.  She just won a non-winners of three and is on the uptick in her form cycle.  She also seems to like Gulfstream, having won here twice.  At 10-1 I’m willing to take a chance in this mess of a race. 

 Other Bets:   $10 Daily Double starting with Race 8 #3 Emollient with #6 Irish Mission and #7 Aigue Marine. ($20 Total Bet)

 0.50 cent Pick Four starting with Race 10  3,8,9/ 4,7,9/ 3/ ALL    ($54 Total Bet)

Good Luck and have fun at the track……Pimlico opens next week!

 

 

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