Stone Cold, Five Star, Rocking Chair, Lead Pipe NFL Locks. Week 9.

Sports and Bets — November 7, 2015 at 10:29 am by

Week 9 is already upon us and it’s the time of year that wagering on just about anything becomes completely and utterly normal. Breeder’s Cup was last week, football is on TV almost every freakin’ night and the NBA just tipped-off.  But sports gambling is just the half of it, babes- this is gameble season. Hell, I’ll bet ya on who’s coming thru the door next while we sit at the bar, what color the next car coming down the street will be, or an over/under on how long it takes me to drive from Owings Mills to Overlea on the beltway during rush hour.  Or even if that Smails kid picks his nose….

As always, we start with The Babes…..

Babes (Season 8-11)

Time to right the ship, and the best way to do that this year is by selling your soul and taking the Patriots.  Hate them, but love money more and they blow the Skins out of the water Sunday.  Fourteen points is not enough, as the Pats will drop 40 plus on the Skins.
I also love like the fighting Dan Campell’s in a revenge game against Buffalo.  These teams are trending in opposite directions and I want the one going up.  The Dolphins win this one outright in upstate New York.

I’m also rolling with the Cowboys on Sunday night as home dogs against Philly.  Teams coming off a loss as a home dog, and they are once again home dogs are 56-27 ATS since 2002.  Take the points here and cash this week.

Zach (Season 12-12)

No games jumped out at me this week, but there are a few that I like.

Redskins +14 over Patriots- As we talked about on our radio show this week (airs Saturday at noon on 970 AM), this spread is mostly about if the Redskins can hit the backdoor cover. 14 points in the NFL is huge, and the Patriots are really, really good, but I think the Redskins will be able to score some points after falling behind early. Look for the redskins to get that backdoor cover.

Packers -2.5 over Panthers- This one’s tough, because we’re dealing with an undefeated home underdog, but after getting dominated last week, I don’t see the Packers losing two in a row, despite Carolina having one of the NFL’s best defenses. I’ll bet on Aaron Rodgers over anyone else.

Jaguars +7 over Jets- I can’t stress enough how much I love the underrated Jags’ offense. Allen Robinson will be held in check by Revis, but I like Allen Hurns to have a big day matched up against Cromartie. Blake Bortles can sling the rock around, and the Jets’ offense isn’t going to light up the score board, especially with Brandon Marshall’s health in question. Look for the Jags to keep this game close.

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Toby (Season 13-11)

The less said about last week’s 0-3 debacle, the better. I’m going to let Cousin Eddie sum up my anemic week of handicapping, have a laugh, and get back to picking winners.

The Game: Washington Redskins at New England Patriots (-14)
The Pick: Redskins

The theme of my picks this week is to win ugly with heavy underdogs, and it doesn’t get any uglier that backing the lowly Skins in Foxborough. It’s hard to imagine Washington having a legitimate chance to beat the Patriots, but 14 points are just way too juicy for me to pass up. Since 2003, teams getting 14 points are 22-15-1 ATS (Team Rankings). And for all the ass-whippings Tom Brady and the Pats have handed out over the years, New England is only 7-11 ATS as two touchdown favorites with Brady under center (Prediction Machine). You’re goddamn right I like these trends, Kirk.

The Game: Atlanta Falcons (-7.5) at San Francisco 49ers
The Pick: 49ers

The Falcons are total frauds, and I’d bet my bottom dollar that they fuck around and miss the playoffs. After a hot start, they’ve been sleepwalking for the past month, failing to cover a spread in their last four contests (Bonesteel). The 49ers may be one of the league’s worst teams, but they have been respectable at home. In four home games, they’ve gone 2-2 while being outscored 60-51. In their four games away from Levi’s Stadium, they’ve gone 0-4 while being outscored 147-58. Blaine Gabbert can’t possibly be any worse than Colin Kaepernick, and Jim Tomsula will have the 49ers fired up and ready to play. Grab the points and bludgeon your bookie.

Denver Broncos (-6) at Indianapolis Colts
The Pick: Colts

Everyone’s blowing the Broncos after they kicked the shit out of the Packers, but let’s pump the breaks a little. One impressive win doesn’t make me forget that Peyton Manning looked like a broken down old man for the first six weeks of the season. The Colts are in complete disarray, but this is still way too many points to give a desperate home team. Andrew Luck is 7-0 ATS as a home underdog over his career, and I love that sloppy motherfucker’s chances to extend that streak (Prediction Machine).

Seabass (Season 16-8-1)

That damn hook In New Orleans kept me from another perfect week; but I can’t complain, babes, as I’m a healthy 6-1 over my last two weeks. Not perfect, mind you, because nobody’s perfect except Mr. Perfect, but I’ll take it, regardless.

Game: Packers (-2.5) @ Panthers    Pick: Panthers

Same road team, same situation.  The Pack go on the road again to face another tough defense.  I’ll take a home doggie with a great defense every time.  Besides, it’s not like the Pack have been lighting it up on offense.  Their passing game has been a bit pedestrian and their run game has weight problems. Take the points in one of the best goddamn games of the week.

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Game: Broncos (-5) @ Colts    Pick: Broncos

This may be a trap game for the Broncos, but five points is just downright ridiculous. The Colts are in shambles, Pep got fired, Luck isn’t thrilled about it, and in general, the Horseshoe sucks donkey balls.  Good, and I think Peyton and company will kick ’em while they’re down.  That Denver defense is slowly climbing the elite-talk mountain.  I believe they will stymie a struggling Colt’s offense and cover easily.

Peyton-Manning-Andrew-Luck-Indianapolis-Colts

 

Game: Falcons (-7) @ 49ers   Pick: 49ers

Yeah, yeah Blaine Gabbert stinks, blah, blah, blah.  Whatever.  He’ll be fine and that 49ers D really isn’t all that bad, babes.  Plus, Atlanta is fake. If the Falcons were playing Little Flower of the Immaculate Heart and Rosary, and giving seven, I’d take the seven; so why wouldn’t I take seven with an NFL team on the Left Coast? It ain’t easy going out west, babes. I’ll gladly take those points.

Good Luck to all!

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