Week 15. As the promise of Santa’s singed, chimney-shuttling red and white ass, dropping gifts off to your spoiled rotten self edges ever closer, so does the end of the NFL regular season. The promise of vast and unheard of, football-gained wealth has faded for some, but for others the bookie bashing is just beginning. Tis the season for winners, babes. The playoffs loom large and nothing is as entertaining as entering late December and early January with a big bankroll and the gumption to use it. Are you not entertained, babes?
Babes has retired from competition and joined a convent. That leaves three. Let’s go…
Zach (Season: 23-32)
May be out this week after undergoing a 4-10 desperation drubbing last week. Never chase, babes.
Toby (Season: 23-19)
My picks were pretty awful last week, as I posted a disappointing 1-2 record. But thankfully, I was still able to pick up a game on Seabass in the standings after he did his best B-Rabbit impression from the beginning of 8 Mile.
The Game: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-6)
The Pick: Bears
The Bears are a poster child for playing to the level of your competition. They’ve had big wins on the road against the Packers and Chiefs, but they’ve also dropped games to the lowly Lions and 49ers. After losing outright as favorites at home in back-to-back weeks, I’m thinking that the Bears are going to be fired up to try to spoil the Vikings’ playoff plans. The Vikings barely escaped Soldier Field with a win in Week 8 by kicking a game-winning field goal as time expired, and John Fox is 10-5 ATS in his career in same-season revenge games (Walter Football). Knowing the Bears, they’ll probably blow this game down the stretch and give their fans heart attacks, but I still love their chances to cover.
The Game: Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
The Pick: Falcons
Even though the Falcons have lost their last six games and their last nine games ATS, I still gotta roll with these bums (Odds Shark). They may be in complete disarray, but all of this salivating over the Jags doesn’t make a lick of sense. I understand that they have a lot of fun players to own in fantasy and they just got done beating the shit out of the Colts, but before that blowout victory, Jacksonville lost back-to-back games to the Chargers and Titans. Yuck. I’m not buying into this Jags hype, and I’m very confident that Atlanta will play much better this week after getting embarrassed by the Panthers. Since 1989, underdogs that are coming off a loss of at least 28 points are 177-128 ATS (Bonesteel). Dan Quinn isn’t ready to go the way of Mike Smith just yet.
The Game: Carolina Panthers (-4.5) at New York Giants
The Pick: Giants
The Panthers have been steamrolling the competition this year, but it looks to me that this is the week where they finally slip up. Over the last 20 years, teams that have gone 13-0 are only 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their next game (Prediction Machine). And since 2007, Eli Manning is 36-26 ATS as an underdog (Walter Football). That goofy bastard has made a career out of pulling off ridiculous upsets, and it’s time for him to add another one to his résumé. Get ready to pop the champagne, you jackass. The Giants are going to win this one outright.
The Game: Denver Broncos at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
The Pick: Broncos
That’s right, babes! For the first time all season, I’m picking four games. Talk about an early Christmas present for my loyal readers. This last selection might be my favorite pick of the week, too. There’s no doubt that Pittsburgh has an explosive offense, but it’s asinine for them to be favored by seven points over a team with such a dominant defense. With Football Outsiders’ numbers going back to 1989, they’ve rated Denver’s defense as the 4th best defense through the first 14 weeks of a season. I also feel that it’s foolish for everybody to jump off the Brock Osweiler bandwagon after the Broncos’ ugly 15-12 loss against the Raiders. He certainly didn’t play his best football, but it was his supporting cast that was guilty of giving away the game. Demaryius Thomas and Vernon Davis dropped some huge passes, Ronnie Hillman lead the team with 20 rushing yards, Denver’s o-line couldn’t do a goddamn thing to slow down Khalil Mack, and Emmanuel Sanders muffed a punt deep in his own territory. There’s no way that all of those guys will play so poorly again this week, and I still have faith that Ozzy can make the throws to get the job done. All aboard, motherfuckers!
Seabass (Season: 26-16-1)
Ah, the old 0-3 ball buster last week as I fell to a mere 10 games over .500. Sigh, babes. But do I look worried? Hell no. I’ll count on my supreme handicapping skills to bounce back in fine form, just like Donald Trump is counting on fear and racism to win an election. Lock it up…..
Game: Panthers (-4) @ Giants Pick: Panthers
If this some kind of a sick fucking joke? The Panthers laying just four to a shitty Giants team because Eli and his drunk face have pulled some big upsets over the last ten years? This line has actually gone down as the public seems convinced of the New York upset. Please. Sure, it’s hard to go undefeated, but the Panthers will dominate here. Just by the number this play is an overlay and an automatic bet. No way this line should be less than 6. The Panthers have done well on the road and the Cam train won’t stop today. Big play, babes.
Game: Titans at Patriots (-14) Pick: Patriots
A lot of points for sure, but the Titans are thinking of golf and pina-colada soaked beaches, while the Pats are thinking home field throughout the playoffs. Destruction is the rule here. I know that laying 14 is a cardinal sin when betting the NFL, but I don’t think even a back-door cover is in order for a reeling Titans team. Ugly early and the Pats second team holds on to the cover late.
Broncos @ Steelers (-7) Pick: Broncos
Unfortunately, the Steelers are one of the hottest teams in the NFL at the moment. CreeperBerger is playing out of his mind and Antonio Brown and company are piling up yards like paper on a West Baltimore corner in June. But a touchdown is a lot to give up to a hell-of-a-Denver defense. The Seabass rule: Top five defense getting a field goal or more in any venue is an automatic play. Just like when Pittsburgh #7 has more than a six pack around anyone female – the touch here is too much. Take them points.
Good luck to all!