Place Your Bets, It’s Kentucky Derby Time

Sports and Bets — May 1, 2015 at 2:25 pm by

This week in Baltimore, sports have understandably taken a back seat to large-scale protests, political and social awareness, reprehensible violence, and curfews. The Birds played a non-attendee game before flying the Camden coop for Florida and the Ravens cancelled their NFL Draft Party. Meanwhile, Maryland’s largest sporting event, The Preakness, is only two weeks away.  There’s no telling whether, or how, this week’s events will eventually effect the second jewel of the Triple Crown, but we shall see.

In the meantime, Pimlico is open for business.  The ponies ran as scheduled Thursday and they will do so Friday and Saturday as well.  According to their website, Pimlico will close at 9 p.m. thru the weekend to accommodate the continued city-wide curfew, but that only affects West-Coast and evening simulcasting.  The horses run at Pimlico during daytime hours and the big race cards in Kentucky on Friday and Saturday will wrap up before 7 p.m.  So watching and wagering on live racing and the Kentucky Derby at Pimlico is a definite option this weekend.

Which brings us to the goings-on in Louisville, Kentucky.  This year’s Derby field is the deepest since the all-star cast of 2007, which included the winner, Street Sense, along with Hard Spun, and Curlin, who would go on to become the first American racehorse to earn $10 million.

This year, the waters may be even deeper with the likes of Dortmund, American Pharaoh, Materiality, Carpe Diem, Upstart, and Frosted all having their fair share of backers.  Two or three second tier horses also have a legitimate shot at roses; and this race, along with the other two Triple Crown runs, is shaping up quite nicely.

We’ll give you our Derby pick and we’ll dive into the rest of Saturday’s stakes action from Churchill.  We’ll also throw down a couple of plays form Friday’s Kentucky Oaks.  Good luck and remember, take these for what you will…..

CHURCHILL DOWNS- FRIDAY, MAY 1ST (KENTUCKY OAKS DAY)

My degenerate ass will be playing most of this card, but I’m just posting two spot plays from Oaks Day.

Race 7- The LaTroienne-  # 5 Sheer Drama. Been following this lass since she beat up a field here at Laurel back in September.  Cashed on her three straight times, twice in the place column at huge odds, and I won’t leave her now that she’s in the best form of her career.  Won’t get a big price here but would love the ML odds of 3-1 to hold.  Filly is versatile, works are showing she can hold form, and this distance is right in her wheelhouse.  Exacta possibilities abound with the 4,7, and 8.  All systems go.

Race 11- The Kentucky Oaks– Bombs away here with the #14 Puca, who I have stubbornly supported for months while she’s eaten up money like a certain Kanye West tune said from a few minutes back.  Puca finished second to rival Condo Commando in the Grade 2 Gazelle and she didn’t really run her race.  Clocker reports are raving and I have a feeling this daughter of Big Brown is sitting on a big effort.  Post position doesn’t bother me with plenty of room before the first turn, and that long Churchill stretch run to the wire.  Hoping for some speed up front.  The distance is no concern and the price is going to be big.  (15-1 ML)    8,12,13 round out the top four for this contest.  Risky business, babes.

puca

CHURCHILL DOWNS- SATURDAY, MAY 2ND (DERBY DAY, BABES)

Let’s fuckin’ go!!!!!

Race 1- ALW/OC 67K- #2 Evan’s Calling.  Gambling for breakfast or brunch is always a good time and this 10:30 post fits the the pancake, bacon, and mimosa crowd nicely. Throw out the last run in the slop, this guy’s got some talent and from the rail he’ll look to take them all the way. 8-1 is doubtful, he’ll take some action, but it will be nice to start our day by winning a pile of guap.  Boom.

Race 5- Pat Day Mile- #2 Gimme Da Lute.  Son of Breeder’s Cup champion, Midnight Lute, will be looking to stalk the speed and pounce.  Stretching out for this and Trainer Bob Baffert seems the master at the stretch and the cut-back.  Pilot is top notch and he’ll sit Gimme Da Lute just behind Hillbilly Royalty and Competitive Edge and hold off Lord Nelson in the lane.  Gimme Da Lute- definitely.

Race 6- American Turf- #11 Divisidero.  If you’re afraid to bet 20-1 (ML) shots then read no further.  This horse isn’t for those who fear the longshot.  This colt is out of monster turf sire, Kitten’s Joy, and he’s trained by William Bradley, who hits at a 47% clip when he enters his ponies in graded stakes competition.  In last was a real solid third in the Palm Beach where he had to go six wide and lost by less than a length.  He’ll get some speed up front and that will suit his closing style just fine.  Know him in the lane. Needs to be faster for this- showing faith with my dollars. Playing in exactas and tris with 1,4, 6, 8, and 10.

Race 7- Humanna Distaff- #8 Judy the Beauty makes her 2015 debut here and I won’t mess with her.  Heavy favorite and chalky, but none others really entice.  Maybe I’m missing something or maybe I’m just afraid.  Chalk Walk.

Race 8- Churchill Distaff Turf- #5 Coffee Clique won this race last year.  I look for much of the same.  Both Sandiva and Lady Lara finished ahead of our miss last out, but time for the Coffee to turn the bean.  Hammer with Lady Lara in exacta and #3 Tepin.  Looking for a big effort.

cc

Race 9- Churchill Downs Stakes-  #5 Pants on Fire is taking on the reigning Breeder’s Cup champion Bayern in this 7 furlong dash.  I’m looking for value and going with Pants on Fire; hoping that Private Zone duels the BC Champ down and leaves room at the wire for the stalking Pants in Fire. Pants on Fire has the speed figs to fit here and in his first off a layoff he popped a big number.  Looking for an even better number in his second start off the break.  5-1 is fine and we’ll exacta our Pants with the two speed demons.  Need the duel to develop.

Race 10- Woodford Reserve Turf Classic-  Wide open prestigious turf affair doesn’t feature a pure grass monster, so we’ll look for some value here.  The #11 Slumber is that value.  He hasn’t won in a while, and that is disturbing, but no longshot is perfect.  Second to turf stud, Mshawsh, down in Florida two back and he popped a big speed number chasing rival Chocolate Ride in the last.  He just missed at the wire in both.  Maybe the outside post keeps him free of traffic as he waits to make one big run.  Also, this 1 and 1/8 distance is his wheelhouse.  Hoping he gets ignored at the windows.  Playing in win and place mode with exactas and triples.

Race 11- The Kentucky Derby- American Pharaoh will probably be the favorite and Dortmund will be the close second choice, and deservedly so, both are extremely talented and both are Triple Crown threats if victorious.  But there is talent in this race galore, so I’m going to take a stab at some value.  #2 Carpe Diem seems to be a forgotten horse in a lot of the expert analysis.  He already has won four of five starts, and $1.5 million dollars, and he has looked like a pro doing it.  Maybe it’s the inside post.  Maybe it’s the fact that he hasn’t yet popped that triple digit speed number, or maybe it’s just because he can be a bit fickle and high maintenance in the post parade and in the gate.  Whatever the reason,  the early love isn’t there and that makes him even more attractive as a wagering option to me.   Carpe Diem is a versatile runner, he has a nice turn of foot and jockey John Velasquez chose to ride him over the undefeated Materiality.  If his price is 8-1 or higher, Carpe Diem will be a hammer play.   Being down in the two spot is my biggest concern, he’ll have to get out of the gate for early position, but I think this colt is poised for a big run- the best is yet to come with this guy and I’ll wager it’s coming on the first Saturday in May.  He has to be a price though, because of his post. Johnny V. has got to get him out so he can stalk the leaders from off the rail.  If somehow Carpe Diemfloats up into that 4-1 range, I may re-evaluate, but my feeling is he’ll stay big odds.  Dortmund, American Pharaoh, and Frosted complete my super.  Using Carpe Diem with these and Firing Line in exactas, triples, and multi-race wagers.  I’ll be posting picks and wagers on twitter all Derby Day long, so follow along.

Two weeks til Preakness!

carpe

 

 

 

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