Orioles vs. Blue Jays Series Preview

Sports and Bets — September 28, 2015 at 6:17 pm by

The O’s will kick off their final homestand of the season with a four-game series against the Blue Jays. Any hopes the Birds had of sneaking into the playoffs are over after that total disaster of a series in Boston. The Orioles displayed historical ineptitude in getting swept by a combined score of 17-0, as it was the first time they were shut out in three straight games since July 29-31, 1957. It was also the first time that it has ever been accomplished by a single opponent (Kubatko). The Sox ripped the Birds’ fucking heart out of their chest like they were Lloyd Christmas. R.I.P. to the 2015 Baltimore Orioles.

40s

The Breakdown
Baltimore Orioles (76-79) vs. Toronto Blue Jays (90-65)
Season Series: Toronto leads 9-6
Last 10 Games: Baltimore’s 5-5, Toronto’s 7-3
Runs: Baltimore’s 14th, Toronto’s 1st
Home Runs: Baltimore’s 4th, Toronto’s 1st
Batting Average: Baltimore’s 23rd, Toronto’s 2nd
On-Base Percentage: Baltimore’s 27th, Toronto’s 1st
Team ERA: Baltimore’s 18th, Toronto’s 11th
Starter ERA: Baltimore’s 26th, Toronto’s 11th
Bullpen ERA: Baltimore’s 4th, Toronto’s 8th
Fewest Errors Made: Baltimore’s tied for 1st, Toronto’s 13th

Baltimore’s Disabled List
P Miguel Gonzalez: 15-day DL (right shoulder, elbow; scheduled to pitch Tuesday)
OF Adam Jones: day-to-day (back)

Toronto’s Disabled List
INF Maicer Izturis: 60-day DL (right shoulder surgery; out for season)
INF Devon Travis: 60-day DL (left shoulder surgery; out for season)
INF Troy Tulowitzki: day-to-day (left shoulder)
OF Michael Saunders: 60-day DL (left knee; out for season)

Monday, September 28 at 7:05 p.m. on MASN 2
RHP Chris Tillman (10-11) vs. RHP Marco Estrada (13-8)
Tillman’s 2015: 29 GS, 160.1 IP, 112 Ks, 5.16 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
Tillman’s Last Three Starts: 1-0, 17 IP, 12 Ks, 5.29 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Estrada’s 2015: 32 G, 26 GS, 167 IP, 120 Ks, 3.13 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Estrada’s Last Three Starts: 1-0, 19.2 IP, 9 Ks, 2.75 ERA, 1.07 WHIP

Tillman was solid in his last start, picking up the win against the Nationals after giving up three runs on six hits and three walks while striking out five over six innings. Tilly would be thrilled with an outing like that against Toronto, as they have hammered the righty over his career. In 19 starts against the Blue Jays, Tillman is 4-10 with a 6.02 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, and he’s struck out 78 batters over 107.2 innings. This season, Tillman has gone 0-4 in five starts against Toronto with a vomit-inducing 15.50 ERA and 2.50 WHIP while striking out 12 batters over 18 innings.

Estrada has been cruising in the second half, going 7-3 in 13 starts since the break with a 2.70 ERA and 0.98 WHIP while striking out 51 batters over 80 innings. Not bad for a guy who started the first month of the season in the bullpen. The 32-year-old hasn’t had any trouble with the Birds in his first season in the AL. In five appearances (three starts) against the O’s, Estrada has gone 2-1 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.05 WHIP while striking out 17 batters over 19 innings.

Good News: Steve Pearce is 3-for-11, Jimmy Paredes is 3-for-8, Chris Davis is 1-for-6 with a HR, Manny Machado is 1-for-6 with a HR, Ryan Flaherty is 1-for-4 with a HR, Steve Clevenger is 1-for-4, Jonathan Schoop is 1-for-3 with a HR, and Nolan Reimold is 1-for-2 off Estrada. Munenori Kawasaki is 4-for-17, and Justin Smoak is 2-for-12 off Tillman.

Bad News: Gerardo Parra is 1-for-11, Adam Jones is 0-for-7, J.J. Hardy is 0-for-5, Matt Wieters is 0-for-3, and Caleb Joseph is 0-for-2 off Estrada. It’s too painful to individually list all the Blue Jays with sterling numbers against Tillman. As a team, the Jays are batting .338/.396/.606 with 13 home runs in 213 at-bats (235 plate appearances) off Tillman. Good grief.

Tuesday, September 29 at 7:05 p.m. on MASN 2
RHP Miguel Gonzalez (9-11) vs. RHP Marcus Stroman (3-0)
Gonzalez’s 2015: 25 GS, 141 IP, 106 Ks, 4.85 ERA, 1.38 WHIP
Stroman’s 2015: 3 GS, 19 IP, 10 Ks, 1.89 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

Gonzalez will be making his first start since August 30 after having right elbow and shoulder troubles. It’d be nice if Gonzalez could end his season on a high note, as 2015 has been a total nightmare for the righty. Historically, Gonzo has been the one causing sleepless nights when it comes to the Blue Jays, though. In 12 career appearances (11 starts) against Toronto, Gonzalez is 7-2 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.97 ERA, and he’s struck out 51 batters over 72.1 innings. This season, Gonzalez was sensational in his first start against the Jays on May 13, earning the win after surrendering one unearned run over 7.2 innings. He gave up three hits and three walks while striking out five batters.

Stroman has made three starts this season after recovering from a torn right ACL, and the talented 24-year-old hurler seems to be picking up right where he left off from his excellent rookie campaign. His most recent start was his best yet, as he earned the win against the Yankees after pitching seven scoreless innings. He gave up five hits and a walk while striking out five batters. Stroman is a groundball pitcher and his best pitch is his low to mid 90s fastball. He also frequently mixes in sliders, changeups, cutters, and curveballs. In two career appearances (one start) against the O’s, Stroman is 0-1 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, and he’s struck out seven batters over 10 innings.

Good News: Flaherty is 1-for-4 with a HR, Jones is 2-for-3, Pearce is 2-for-2, and David Lough is 1-for-1 off Stroman. Edwin Encarnacion is 3-for-25 with 3 HRs, Jose Bautista is 5-for-19, Ryan Goins is 3-for-14, Kawasaki is 2-for-11, Chris Colabello is 0-for-6, Josh Donaldson is 1-for-5, Kevin Pillar is 1-for-4, and Josh Thole is 1-for-4 off Gonzalez.

Bad News: Hardy is 0-for-3, Joseph is 0-for-3, Clevenger is 0-for-2, Paredes is 0-for-1, and Schoop is 0-for-1 off Stroman. Russell Martin is 3-for-8, Dioner Navarro is 1-for-3, and Dalton Pompey is 1-for-2 off Gonzalez.

Wednesday, September 30 at 7:05 p.m. on MASN 2
RHP Kevin Gausman (3-7) vs. RHP R.A. Dickey (11-11)
Gausman’s 2015: 24 G, 16 GS, 104.1 IP, 93 Ks, 4.49 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Gausman’s Last Three Starts: 1-1, 17 IP, 18 Ks, 4.76 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Dickey’s 2015: 32 GS, 209.1 IP, 123 Ks, 4.00 ERA, 1.21 WHIP
Dickey’s Last Three Starts: 1-1, 20.2 IP, 7 Ks, 3.92 ERA, 0.97 WHIP

Gausman has gotten shelled in his last two starts, going 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA and 1.55 WHIP while striking out 11 batters over 11 innings. Both of these rough outings were on the road, and thankfully, Gausman will be taking the bump at Camden Yards in this start. This season, Gausman has gone 1-6 in 14 appearances (nine starts) on the road with a 6.10 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. When pitching in Baltimore, Gausman has gone 2-1 in 10 appearances (seven starts) with a 2.38 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. He’ll look to keep that trend going against a Toronto club that he’s pitched well against over his career. In eight appearances (three starts) against the Blue Jays, Gausman is 1-1 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.43 WHIP, and he’s struck out 16 batters over 21.2 innings. This season, Gausman has gone 0-0 against the Jays in three appearances (one start) with a 3.24 ERA and 1.32 WHIP while striking out four batters over 8.1 innings.

The crafty knuckleballer has really hit his stride in the second half. In 18 first half starts, Dickey went 3-10 with a 4.87 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. In his 14 starts since the break, Dickey has gone 8-1 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The 2012 NL Cy Young winner will try to keep the good times rolling against an Orioles club that has given him some trouble over the years. In 13 career appearances (10 starts) against the Birds, Dickey has gone 2-6 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.22 WHIP while striking out 57 batters over 70.2 innings. Surprisingly, this will be the 40-year-old’s first start against the O’s this season.

Good News: Davis is 6-for-23 with 2 HRs, Hardy is 5-for-20 with a HR, Machado is 5-for-14, Flaherty is 2-for-9 with a HR, Parra is 6-for-9, Schoop is 1-for-5 with a HR, Paul Janish is 3-for-3, Lough is 1-for-3, and Clevenger is 2-for-2 off Dickey. Encarnacion is 0-for-9, Bautista is 0-for-8, Navarro is 1-for-5, Goins is 0-for-4, Pillar is 1-for-4, Kawasaki is 0-for-3, Colabello is 0-for-2, and Ezequiel Carrera is 0-for-1 off Gausman.

Bad News: Jones is 3-for-25 with a HR, Wieters is 2-for-11, Pearce is 0-for-4, and Reimold is 0-for-2 off Dickey. Donaldson is 3-for-9, Martin is 1-for-2, and Pompey is 1-for-2 off Gausman.

Thursday, October 1 at 7:05 p.m. on MASN 2
RHP Tyler Wilson (2-2) vs. LHP David Price (18-5)
Wilson’s 2015: 8 G, 4 GS, 35 IP, 12 Ks, 3.60 ERA, 1.34 WHIP
Wilson’s Last Three Starts: 1-1, 18 IP, 8 Ks, 5.00 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
Price’s 2015: 32 GS, 220.1 IP, 225 Ks, 2.45 ERA, 1.08 WHIP
Price’s Last Three Starts: 3-0, 19 IP, 22 Ks, 2.37 ERA, 1.00 WHIP

Wilson was sharp in his last outing, taking a no-decision against the Nats after giving up two runs on six hits and two walks while striking out four over six innings. A strong start against the Jays would be a nice exclamation point for Wilson’s rookie season. This will be his first career start against Toronto, but he was terrific against them in a relief appearance on June 19. Wilson gave up one run on five hits and two walks while striking out one batter over 5.2 innings.

Price has been nothing short of dominant since joining the Blue Jays. In his 11 starts with Toronto, he’s gone 9-1 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.01 WHIP while striking out 87 batters over 74.1 innings. The 2012 AL Cy Young winner has won his last five starts, and much to the dismay of this blogger, it looks like he has a great shot at extending that streak to six. In 19 career starts against the Birds, Price is 8-4 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, and he’s struck out 120 batters over 122.1 innings. This season, the 30-year-old southpaw has gone 1-1 in two starts against the O’s with a 1.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while striking out 20 batters over 14 innings.

Good News: Wieters is 15-for-44 with a HR, Hardy is 13-for-42, Davis is 6-for-20, Machado is 5-for-20 with a HR, Pearce is 5-for-20 with a HR, Flaherty is 1-for-3, Junior Lake is 1-for-3, and Paredes is 1-for-2 off Price. Smoak is 0-for-3, Donaldson is 0-for-2, Bautista is 0-for-1, Navarro is 0-for-1, and Carrera is 0-for-1 off Wilson.

Bad News: Jones is 14-for-52, Reimold is 4-for-28 with a HR, Schoop is 2-for-10, Joseph is 1-for-8, and Parra is 0-for-3 off Price. Colabello is 2-for-2, Encarnacion is 1-for-2, Goins is 1-for-2, and Pillar is 1-for-2 off Wilson.

Enjoy the games, and let’s go O’s!

stats: Baseball-Reference

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