Orioles at Yankees Series Preview

Sports and Bets — July 21, 2015 at 5:52 pm by

After getting off to a great start in the 2nd half by taking two out of three from Detroit, the Birds are off to the Bronx for a big three-game series with the hated Yankees. Currently, the O’s are in 2nd place in the AL East and four games back of New York for 1st. If the Birds are going to put a dent in the Yankees’ lead, they’ll need to deliver in the clutch. The O’s were eight for their last 95 with RISP before Sunday’s 9-3 massacre of the Tigers. The Birds went 6-for-10 with RISP that game, which is hopefully a sign that the tides are turning.

The Breakdown
Baltimore Orioles (46-45) vs. New York Yankees (50-41)
Season Series: Tied 5-5
Last 10 Games: Baltimore’s 4-6, New York’s 6-4
Runs: Baltimore’s tied for 8th, New York’s 2nd
Home Runs: Baltimore’s 5th, New York’s tied for 2nd
Batting Average: Baltimore’s 8th, New York’s 15th
On-Base Percentage: Baltimore’s 20th, New York’s 10th
Team ERA: Baltimore’s 12th, New York’s 20th
Starter ERA: Baltimore’s 20th, New York’s 21st
Bullpen ERA: Baltimore’s 6th, New York’s 11th
Fewest Errors Made: Baltimore’s 2nd, New York’s 25th

Baltimore’s Injury Report
P Jason Garcia: 60-day DL (right shoulder; currently on rehab assignment)

New York’s Injury Report
P Sergio Santos: 60-day DL (Tommy John surgery; out for season)
P Chase Whitley: 60-day DL (Tommy John surgery; out for season)
OF Slade Heathcott: 60-day DL (right quad)
OF Mason Williams: 60-day DL (right shoulder)

Tuesday, July 21 at 7:05 p.m. on MASN & MLBN
LHP Wei-Yin Chen (4-5) vs. RHP Nathan Eovaldi (9-2)
Chen’s 2015: 17 GS, 110 IP, 90 Ks, 2.78 ERA, 1.09 WHIP
Chen’s Last Three Starts: 1-1, 23 IP, 14 Ks, 2.35 ERA, 0.87 WHIP
Eovaldi’s 2015: 18 GS, 98 IP, 71 Ks, 4.50 ERA, 1.52 WHIP
Eovaldi’s Last Three Starts: 2-0, 15.2 IP, 11 Ks, 2.87 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

Chen was on a tear heading into the All-Star break, going 2-1 in his last five starts with a 1.95 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while striking out 28 batters over 37 innings. All five of his outings were quality starts, and he hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start since May 30 against the Rays. Chen will look to keep the good times rolling against a Yankees club that’s given him some trouble over the years. In 11 career starts against New York, Chen is 3-4 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, and he’s struck out 52 batters over 64.1 innings. The long ball has been Chen’s biggest problem in these outings, as he’s served up a whopping 12 home runs. But this season, Chen was masterful in his first two starts against the Yankees. He went 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.85 WHIP while striking out 11 batters over 13 innings.

Eovaldi’s .818 winning percentage is tied for the best in all of baseball, which shows how damn worthless win/loss records are in today’s MLB. Eovaldi was absolutely demolished by the Marlins on June 16, taking the loss after giving up eight runs on nine hits over 0.2 innings. Since that horrific outing, Eovaldi has thrown the ball very well. Over his last five starts, Eovaldi has gone 4-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 1.19 WHIP while striking out 21 batters over 27.2 innings. Eovaldi is a flame-thrower who can hit the high 90s with his fastball, but he’s only been throwing it a career-low 49.5% of the time this season. He’s been relying more on his slider, splitter, and curveball, and his splitter has been by far his best pitch this season. The 25-year-old has made two career starts against the Birds and they both came earlier this season. Eovaldi is 1-0 against the O’s with a 4.22 ERA and 1.88 WHIP, and he’s struck out 12 batters over 10.2 innings.

Good News: Caleb Joseph is 4-for-5 with a HR, Travis Snider is 2-for-5, Manny Machado is 1-for-3 with a HR, Jimmy Paredes is 1-for-3 with a HR, Steve Pearce is 1-for-3, and Jonathan Schoop is 1-for-1 off Eovaldi. Alex Rodriguez is 3-for-16 with a HR, Mark Teixeira is 3-for-14 with a HR, Carlos Beltran is 1-for-9, Brendan Ryan is 0-for-9, Brian McCann is 0-for-6, John Ryan Murphy is 1-for-4, and Didi Gregorius is 0-for-2 off Chen.

Bad News: Chris Davis is 1-for-6, Adam Jones is 1-for-6, J.J. Hardy is 0-for-3, and David Lough is 0-for-3 off Eovaldi. Jacoby Ellsbury is 7-for-19, Brett Gardner is 5-for-18 with a HR, Stephen Drew is 4-for-13, Chris Young is 2-for-8 with a HR, and Chase Headley is 2-for-6 off Chen. In 102 career games against the Birds, Ellsbury is hitting .322/.369/.465 with 10 HRs, 68 runs scored, 39 RBIs, and 36 steals.

Wednesday, July 22 at 7:05 p.m. on MASN & ESPN
RHP Kevin Gausman (1-1) vs. RHP Ivan Nova (1-3)
Gausman’s 2015: 11 G, 3 GS, 27 IP, 25 Ks, 5.00 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Gausman’s Last Three Starts: 0-1, 15 IP, 12 Ks, 5.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP
Nova’s 2015: 4 GS, 23.2 IP, 12 Ks, 3.42 ERA, 1.35 WHIP
Nova’s Last Three Starts: 0-3, 17 IP, 11 Ks, 4.76 ERA, 1.59 WHIP

Gausman was sharp in his first two starts, surrendering only two runs over 11.1 innings while striking out eight. But he was unexpectedly pummeled in his last start, taking the loss after giving up eight runs (seven earned) on seven hits and a walk while striking out four over 3.2 innings against Minnesota. The Gas Man will look to get back on track against the Yankees, which is a team the hard-throwing righty has typically shined against. In three career starts (nine appearances) against New York, Gausman is 3-1 with a 2.28 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, and he’s struck out 26 batters over 27.2 innings. In 2014, Gausman went 1-0 in three starts against the Yankees with a 1.59 ERA and 1.00 WHIP, and he struck out 14 batters over 17 innings. This season, Gausman struggled in his lone appearance against New York. He came on in relief and allowed two runs (one earned) on two hits over 0.2 innings.

Nova has only made eight starts over the last two seasons after having to undergo Tommy John surgery in April of 2014. Nova is a ground ball pitcher, who throws in the low 90s with a curveball and a changeup. His curveball is by far his best pitch, and he’s been throwing it 27.9% of the time this season. In 12 career starts (13 appearances) against the O’s, Nova is 5-3 with a 5.03 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, and he’s struck out 65 batters over 82.1 innings. Nova’s last start against the Birds came in April of 2014, and the 28-year-old got his sauce peppered. He took the loss after giving up seven runs on 10 hits and no walks while striking out three over 3.2 innings.

Good News: Hardy is 9-for-33 with a HR, Wieters is 11-for-31 with 4 HRs, Davis is 8-for-24 with 3 HRs, Ryan Flaherty is 3-for-7, Snider is 3-for-4 with a HR, and Schoop is 2-for-2 off Nova. Ellsbury is 1-for-10, Drew is 0-for-8, Teixeira is 1-for-8, McCann is 1-for-7, Ryan is 0-for-3, and Beltran is 0-for-1 off Gausman. In 18 career games against the Yankees, Schoop is batting .255/.281/.582 with 5 HRs, 13 RBIs, and 10 runs scored.

Bad News: Jones is 8-for-37 with a HR, Machado is 1-for-14, Nolan Reimold is 3-for-12, and Lough is 0-for-3 off Nova. Gardner is 3-for-10 with a HR, Young is 2-for-5, Murphy is 1-for-3, Headley is 1-for-2, Rodriguez is 1-for-2, and Gregorius is 1-for-1 off Nova. That dickhead from Annapolis is back to being a productive big league bat. Teixeria is 4th in HRs (23) and tied for 2nd in RBIs (63) in the AL this season.

Thursday, July 23 at 1:05 p.m. on MASN & MLBN
RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (7-5) vs. RHP Masahiro Tanaka (6-3)
Jimenez’s 2015: 18 GS, 104 IP, 103 Ks, 3.29 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Jimenez’s Last Three Starts: 0-2, 16.2 IP, 14 Ks, 4.32 ERA, 1.50 WHIP
Tanaka’s 2015: 12 GS, 74 IP, 74 Ks, 3.65 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
Tanaka’s Last Three Starts: 2-0, 20.2 IP, 18 Ks, 3.05 ERA, 0.82 WHIP

Jimenez’s first start of the 2nd half was easily his worst start of the season. He took the loss against Detroit after allowing seven runs on seven hits and no walks while striking out five over 4.2 innings. It sounds like a perfect time for Jimenez to toe the rubber during a matinee. In five day starts, Jimenez is 2-0 with a 1.41 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, and he’s struck out 28 batters over 32 innings. In 13 night starts, Jimenez is 5-5 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.28 WHIP, and he’s struck out 75 batters over 72 innings. Over eight career starts against the Yankees, Jimenez has gone 3-4 with a 5.48 ERA and 1.73 WHIP while striking out 38 batters over 42.2 innings. This season, Jimenez picked up the win in his lone start against New York. He gave up three runs on six hits and two walks while striking out six over five innings.

Last season, Tanaka burst onto the major league scene, making the All-Star team and finishing 5th in Rookie of the Year balloting. He posted a 2.77 ERA and 1.06 WHIP while striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings, but he was limited to only 20 starts after suffering a partially torn right UCL. This season, Tanaka has missed over a month of action with forearm and wrist soreness in his throwing arm. Tanaka has clearly proven that he can pitch at this level, but so far in his career, he hasn’t been able to withstand the rigors of a full MLB season. The 26-year-old is a finesse pitcher, who’s only thrown his low 90s fastball 36.0% of the time this season. Tanaka’s most effective pitches are his splitter and his slider, and he’s thrown them a combined 48.0% of the time this season. He also mixes in a cutter and a curveball. This will be Tanaka’s third career start against the O’s and his first start against them in 2015. In two career starts against the Birds, Tanaka is 0-1 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, and he’s struck out 16 batters over 14 innings.

Good News: Jones is 2-for-6, Schoop is 2-for-6 with 2 HRs, Hardy is 1-for-3, Machado is 1-for-3, Pearce is 1-for-3, and Wieters is 1-for-2 off Tanaka. Young is 8-for-45, Teixeira is 4-for-24, Gardner is 3-for-16, Ryan is 2-for-13, and Gregorius is 0-for-1 off Jimenez. In 10 games against the Yankees this season, Machado is slashing .385/.467/.590 with 2 HRs, 10 runs scored, and 7 RBIs.

Bad News: Davis is 1-for-6, Chris Parmelee is 1-for-6, Flaherty is 0-for-3, and Joseph is 0-for-2 off Tanaka. Drew is 10-for-42 with 2 HRs, McCann is 10-for-37 with a HR, Headley is 7-for-24 with a HR, Beltran is 7-for-18 with 2 HRs, Garrett Jones is 5-for-11, Ellsbury is 5-for-10, and Rodriguez is 3-for-6 off Jimenez.

Enjoy the games, and let’s go O’s!

cover pic: The Baltimore Wire
stats: Baseball-Reference

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