Orioles at Marlins Series Preview

Sports and Bets — May 22, 2015 at 6:27 pm by

The O’s are heading to Miami for a quick three-game road trip. This will be the Birds’ first trip to the Marlins’ new stadium, and the first time they’ve played them since they became the Miami Marlins. Playing the Marlins has historically meant disaster for the O’s, as they’ve gone 6-18 in their 24 games against them, including a 1-11 record on the road. The last time these two teams faced off was June 2010, and the Marlins took two out of three games at Camden Yards. The last time the Birds played the Marlins at their place was June 2009, and the Marlins swept them in a three-game series. This clip perfects sums up just how shitty the O’s have been against the Marlins over the years.

But thankfully, that’s all ancient history, babes. The Birds have won three of their last four, while the Marlins have lost seven straight. The Marlins fired their manager Mike Redmond last Sunday, and now, they’ve got Dan Jennings managing the club. Jennings was the Marlins’ general manager, and he had previously never coached at any level above high school. The Marlins are in disarray, and it’s time for the O’s to hand out some long overdue ass kickings. Let’s fire up the Will Smith, and watch the Birds get hotter than a young Eva Mendes.

The Breakdown
Baltimore Orioles (18-20) at Miami Marlins (16-26)
Last 10 Games: Baltimore’s 5-5, Miami’s 1-9
Runs: Baltimore’s tied for 14th, Miami’s 19th
Home Runs: Baltimore’s 8th, Miami’s tied for 27th
Batting Average: Baltimore’s 9th, Miami’s 10th
On-Base Percentage: Baltimore’s 13th, Miami’s 15th
Team ERA: Baltimore’s 17th, Miami’s 20th
Starter ERA: Baltimore’s 23rd, Miami’s 17th
Bullpen ERA: Baltimore’s 18th, Miami’s 21st
Fewest Errors Made: Baltimore’s tied for 14th, Miami’s 2nd

Baltimore’s Injury Report
P Jason Garcia: 15-day DL (right shoulder)
P Kevin Gausman: 15-day DL (right shoulder)
P Bud Norris: 15-day DL (bronchitis)
P Wesley Wright: 15-day DL (left shoulder)
C Matt Wieters: 60-day DL (Tommy John surgery)
INF Ryan Flaherty: 15-day DL (right groin)
INF Jonathan Schoop: 15-day DL (right knee)

Miami’s Injury Report
P Jarred Cosart: 15-day DL (ear infection/vertigo)
P Aaron Crow: 60-day DL (Tommy John surgery; out for season)
P Jose Fernandez: 60-day DL (Tommy John surgery)
C Jeff Mathis: 15-day DL (fractured right ring finger)
INF Don Kelly: 15-day DL (fractured right ring finger)

Friday, May 22 at 7:10 p.m. on MASN 2
RHP Ubaldo Jimenez (3-3) vs. RHP Henderson Alvarez (0-3)
Jimenez’s 2015: 7 GS, 40.2 IP, 38 Ks, 2.43 ERA, 1.03 WHIP
Jimenez’s Last Three Starts: 1-2, 18 IP, 16 Ks, 3.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP
Alvarez’s 2015: 3 GS, 17.1 IP, 7 Ks, 6.23 ERA, 1.44 WHIP
Alvarez’s Last Start: L, 5.1 IP, 9 H, 6 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

After a rough start against the Mets, Jimenez rolled in his last two outings. Against the Blue Jays and Angels, Jimenez went 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.14 WHIP while striking out 15 batters over 14 innings. Jimenez has been solid in Interleague play over his career, going 8-8 in 20 starts (21 appearances) with a 3.78 ERA and 1.37 WHIP while striking out 116 batters over 131 innings. In five career starts against the Marlins, Jimenez is 1-2 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.60 WHP, and he’s struck out 31 batters over 24.1 innings.

The former Blue Jay Henderson Alvarez was sensational last season, going 12-7 in 30 starts with a 2.65 ERA and 1.24 WHIP while striking out 111 batters over 187 innings. He made his first All-Star team, and he was tied for 1st in the majors with three complete game shutouts. So far, this season has been a much different story for the 25-year-old. Henderson has been getting shelled, and he just returned to the field last Sunday after missing a little over a month of action with right shoulder inflammation. This season, Henderson’s fastball has been averaging only 90.4 mph after averaging 93.5 mph last season. Henderson primarily throws a fastball, a changeup, or a slider, but he occasionally mixes in a curveball and an eephus pitch. If he gets somebody out on an eephus, I’m either going to piss my pants with laughter or throw my remote through the television. I guess it all depends on the importance of the at-bat. Henderson has pitched well against the O’s over his career, going 1-2 in five starts with a 3.12 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. In eight Interleague play starts, he’s 3-4 with a 4.14 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Good News: Adam Jones is 5-for-11 with a HR, J.J. Hardy is 3-for-11, Chris Davis 5-for-10 with a HR, Alejandro De Aza is 4-for-9, and Delmon Young is 1-for-3 off Alvarez. Donovan Solano is 0-for-3, and Jeff Baker is 0-for-2 off Jimenez.

Bad News: Manny Machado is 0-for-2 off Alvarez. Ichiro Suzuki is 5-for-17, Martin Prado is 3-for-8, Giancarlo Stanton is 3-for-7 with a HR, Mike Morse is 2-for-6, Adeiny Hechavarria is 2-for-3, and Christian Yelich is 2-for-3 off Jimenez. Stanton is tied for 3rd in the MLB in home runs, and he’s first in RBIs. Stanton has also hit three of the top five longest home runs this season.

Saturday, May 23 at 7:15 p.m. on FOX
RHP Mike Wright (1-0) vs. RHP Dan Haren (4-2)
Wright’s 2015: 1 GS, 7.1 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 6 K
Haren’s 2015: 8 GS, 49.1 IP, 33 Ks, 3.47 ERA, 1.01 WHIP
Haren’s Last Three Starts: 1-1, 19.1 IP, 12 Ks, 4.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP

Wright will take on the Marlins in the second game of the series, and he’ll try to emulate his scintillating major league debut. The 25-year-old rookie was off to a terrific start for Norfolk before getting called up, going 3-0 in six starts with a 2.64 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while striking out 30 batters over 30.2 innings. The righty made a concerted effort to establish his fastball in his first big league start, throwing it 72.2% of the time against the Angels. Wright demonstrated that he has more than enough velocity to pitch at this level, as his fastball averaged 93.4 mph and touched 98 mph. Wright also mixes in a changeup, a slider, and a curveball.

I feel like Haren’s 40 years old and has played for half the major league teams, but surprisingly, he’s only 34, and the Marlins are his 7th team. Haren and Dee Gordon came to the Marlins from the Dodgers in a trade over the winter. The three-time All-Star has been great this season, and he’s on pace to easily post his best numbers since 2011. Haren’s never been one to mess around when it comes to attacking hitters, as he has an excellent 1.9 BB/9 for his career. This season, he’s walked only 1.5 batters per nine innings, and he hasn’t walked a single batter over his last four starts. Haren throws a fastball, a cutter, a knuckle curve, and a splitter. Despite only averaging 86 mph on his fastball and 83.1 mph on his cutter, Haren’s thrown the two pitches a combined 82.5% of the time this season. In 39 career Interleague play starts, Haren is 21-10 with a 3.67 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. In 12 career starts against the O’s, Haren is 5-4 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.12 WHIP.

Good News: Young is 10-for-32, Hardy is 5-for-15, Jones is 5-for-14, Machado is 2-for-3, and Snider is 2-for-3 with a HR off Haren.

Bad News: Davis is 2-for-13, De Aza is 2-for-9, Professional Hitter Steve Pearce is 2-for-9, and David Lough is 0-for-3 off Haren. Gordon leads all of baseball with a .386 batting average, and he’s 4th in steals.

Sunday, May 24 at 1:10 p.m. on MASN 2 & WJZ
RHP Miguel Gonzalez (5-2) vs. RHP Tom Koehler (2-3)
Gonzalez’s 2015: 8 GS, 50 IP, 42 Ks, 3.24 ERA, 1.12 WHIP
Gonzo’s Last Three Starts: 2-1, 18.2 IP, 15 Ks, 4.34 ERA, 1.07 WHIP
Koehler’s 2015: 8 GS (9 appearances), 48.2 IP, 35 Ks, 3.70 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Koehler’s Last Three Starts: 0-1, 18.2 IP, 13 Ks, 2.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP

Like Jimenez, Gonzalez has been very strong in his last two outings. After running into some trouble against the Yankees, Gonzo looked sharp against the Blue Jays and Mariners. He went 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA and 0.89 WHIP while striking out 13 batters over 14.2 innings. Gonzalez has never faced the Marlins, but he done have a fantastic track record in Interleague play. In five career starts, Gonzalez is 2-1 with a 2.36 ERA and 0.90 WHIP, and he’s struck out 29 batters over 34.1 innings.

Koehler has moved back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen this season, but whenever he’s been handed the ball, he’s pitched pretty well. In his last start, he took a no-decision after holding the Diamondbacks to two runs (none earned) on five hits and two walks while striking out three over 6.2 innings. The 28-year-old throws a curveball, a slider, and a changeup to go along with his low-to-mid 90s fastball. His curveball is easily his best pitch, and he’s been throwing it 20.1% of the time this season. Koehler has struggled mightily in Interleague play over his career, going 3-2 in eight starts with a 5.52 ERA and 1.57 WHIP. This will be his first start against the Orioles.

Good News: Lough is 1-for-2 off Koehler. Prado is 0-for-6 off Gonzalez. Jimmy Paredes is batting .342, and he’s hit in 24 of his 27 games this season.

Bad News: Current Orioles are batting .077/.143/.077 in 13 at-bats off Koehler. Snider is 0-for-6, De Aza is 0-for-3, and Young is 0-for-2 off Koehler. Suzuki is 6-for-22 with 2 HRs, and Hechavarria is 1-for-3 off Gonzalez.

Enjoy the games, and let’s go O’s!

stats: Baseball-Reference
cover pic: FanSided

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