Money, Power, Respect. We Give You Our Week 4 NFL Locks

Featured, Sports and Bets — September 27, 2013 at 10:17 pm by

The Chode made a big statement last week, rising out of the depths to go 4-0.  Meanwhile Babes dragged ass, messed around with a bunch of totals and went 1-4.  Gross.  I’d rather vacation in Somalia than have to hand my book the consequences of a 1-4 week.  Seabass held steady at 1-1-1.  The push coming courtesy of Jake Locker and the Titans’ comeback.  So far it’s a grind, nobody’s booking flights to the Caribbean with these winnings.  Especially Babes, who at this point can’t even afford a bus ticket to Glen Burnie.  Since Chode went undefeated last week, he’ll hold the honor.

Welcome to Somalia. How a nice day babes.

The Chode (Season 6-4)

Cincy @ Clevland   Line: Cincy -4.5

Chode’s Pick: Browns

 We all know how tough AFC North football can be, especially on the road.  I like Cleveland to get one at home against an over-hyped Bengals team, especially with the points.

Seattle @ Houston   Line: Seattle -3

Chode’s Pick: Houston

Speaking of hype, here are two teams chock full of it this year.  Texans don’t take last week’s loss well and return home to beat the Seahawks.

Philly @ Denver   Line: Denver- 11.5

Chode’s Pick: Broncos baby

11 and hook seems like a lot to give up in most games, but with the way Peyton is playing this year I probably would have given up a few more. So  don’t tell Uncle Tony in Vegas or he might just make me.

Miami @ New Orleans  Line: NO-7

Chode’s Pick: Miami….of course Miami

 If it’s not Broke don’t fix it. After my sleeper Dolphins do it on primetime TV Monday night everyone will be hopping on the bandwagon.

Fins ala Jimmy Buffet:

 

Riding the Dolphins’ jock all season: The Chode

Babes (Season 5-7)

Tough one last week as I shit the bed on all totals, but my biggest play of the year to date came through on Baltimore. I also had Atlanta, who was a missed 35 yard field goal away from covering. Fickle bunch those gambling gods! Anyway were getting back on track this week with a big Sunday and the Monday Night Bailout parlay.

NYG +4: I’m backing Eli and the G-Men this week for a couple of reasons. One, their desperate for a win, while KC is sitting pretty where they are and could be looking past the lowly Giants. Second, I feel like Tom Coughlin’s knowledge of Andy Reid and his tendencies will give a slight edge to New York. The same can be said the other way for Andy Reid knowing the Giants tendencies, but I just have a feeling that the Giants will capitalize more than KC will. A few numbers to support the Giants:

The Giants are 35-17 ATS on the road since 2006 as long as they’re not favored by 3.5 or more.

Eli Manning is 26-15 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Andy Reid is 11-19 ATS vs. non-conference opponents as a favorite since 2002. I think KC gets stunned early and battles back to win the game by a field goal.

The Giants have looked about as good as Tom Coughlin’s face in winter, but Babes loves ’em vs the Chiefs

NYJ +3.5: I’m going with both the New York teams on the road getting points this week. The Jets defense is one of the best in the league, and as long as Geno Smith doesn’t turn the ball over multiple times, I feel they’ll be in every game. They have found a decent running game behind Bilal Powell, and have been getting decent production out of wideouts Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill. Tennessee is a good solid football team as well, but their not ready to perform in the favorite role in my opinion. I feel much better taking the three with the hook than I do expecting the Titans to win by a TD. Mike Munchak is 4-7 ATS as a favorite, and 4-9 ATS playing a team with a winning record.

Denver-11.5 over 58: The Broncos offense looks like the 2007 Patriots, unstoppable. At least for now, in ideal weather conditions. We’ll see come December how this offense adjusts, but for now, I’m laying the wood almost every week on Denver. They could have hung 62+ on Oakland if they had wanted to, and Philly’s defense is hardly an obstacle for Peyton Manning. I expect Philly to put up some points of their own, so I ll take the over as well.

Seabass (Season 6-4-1)

Giants at Chiefs (-4.5) – The Giants are reeling after getting blasted in Carolina last week,  Now they travel to Kansas City to play in one of the toughest venues in the NFL  in Arrowhead Stadium.  Babes can throw all the ATS stats around that he wants, this line should be at least 7, which makes the Chiefs a tremendous value.  After 10 days off the Chiefs will be rested and ready.  They are also first in the NFL with 15 sacks.  Carolina sacked Eli 8 times, Justin Houston and the rest of the KC D are licking their chops.  Manning will have to have  a tomahawk removed from his ass when he gets back to New York.  Chiefs big.

Still a hick and still throwing picks.

Ravens (-3) at Bills-  This is a weird matchup.  The Bills are all banged up and playing terrible defense.  The Ravens are all banged up and playing ugly offense.  Somethings got to give, and I think the Bills will be giving up plenty of yards.  I know, they play tough at home, but I think the  Ravens will have some success on offense, and shut down the Bills with a physical and fast defense.  I wear purple glasses, but fuck it, I like purple.  Ravens by a touchdown.

New England (+2) at Atlanta-  New England getting points in prime time against a soft dome team?  Please.  Not to mention the fact that teams from the AFC are crushing the teams from the NFC so far this season.  With Tom Brady, if you take, you will make.  Pats outscore the Falcons in a Sunday night shoot-out.

Brady will save you on Sunday Night

Dolphins at New Orleans (-6-5)-  It’s a great Monday night showdown for once and the Dolphins are getting no respect, even after beating the Colts in Indy and beating a solid Atlanta team.  The Dolphins are a tough football team who may make a run at the AFC East.  Six and a hook seems  like a lot, even though Jimmy Graham is going to give them fits and Drew Brees and the boys just flat run track at home.  But because it seems like a lot, it may just mean that it’s not enough.  The Saints are tougher than a $2 steak at home, and I think they are looking to really make a statement.  Long term, the Dolphins may end up the better team, but I’ll bet the Saints ambush ’em here.   Lay the lumber.

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