Horsecrap and Money: Breeders’ Cup Saturday

Featured, Sports and Bets — October 31, 2014 at 12:12 pm by

We’ve already glossed over how incredible the Breeders’ Cup is and given our picks for Friday’s races. Hopefully we had some winners in there for your wagering pleasure.  (Gotta write these two days ahead of time, so as I write this Friday hasn’t happened yet.)

Whether we hit or not on Friday, it’s time to turn the page and throw some cash at Saturday. This is big boy handicapping.  The deep-pocket pick six players, the black socks and Bermuda shorts wearing retirees, the rich and famous, and the railbird degenerates, are all out in full force for this one.  And whether you play five bucks a race or invest $5,000 every time the gate opens, this day can make or break your bankroll for the whole year.

The Breeders’ Cup Classic is always in focus and this year is no different.  The race is worth a cool $5 million bucks and the entrants are some of the best racehorses in the country and in the world.  This year the Classic field is dominated by three year old’s.  California Chrome, Shared Belief, Bayern, and Tonalist all deserve and demand wagering respect.  This race reminds me of the 2007 edition when three year old’s Curlin, Hard Spun, and Street Sense dominated the headlines prior to race day.  Curlin won the Classic in the mud of Monmouth Park, running down and passing Hard Spun in mid stretch. Curlin would be named Horse of the Year and would continue a dominating career in which he broke Cigar’s career earnings record. Will one of these sophomores become Curlin-esque with a win on Saturday?  We’ll see.

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Besides the intriguing Classic, there are also eight other Breeders’ Cup races being run on Saturday.  All feature top thoroughbreds of different ages running on different surfaces at different distances.  It’s a maze of horsecrap and money, babes.

Let’s pick some damn winners and make some.

Santa Anita:  Breeders’ Cup Saturday

Race 4: Juvenile Fillies:   Wading through these evenly matched fillies in the past performances is like walking into a bar and realizing both the chicks you’re currently banging are drinking in the same building with you suddenly present.  You’ve got two choices- either bail, or pick the one that gives you the best bang for your drink buying buck.  I’m not bailing on this race, I’m here to gamble, so in a clash of evenly matched and lightly raced misses, I’m looking for some longer odds that can deliver.  I think I found just that in the #8 Puca.  Sure, she’s never faced winners, but trainer Bill Mott has her in here after she blasted a MSW field by 16 lengths.  Two back she only lost by 1.5 lengths to the highly regarded Lady Eli on turf.  Oct. 26th work is freaky, especially for a freshman.  Also like the distance win and that she’ll be near the lead early.  Hope the odds stay at 6-1 or better.  Risk/reward wager.  Playing with 2/4/11 in exacta and trifecta wagering.

Race 5: Filly and Mare Turf:  #4 Dayatthespa has never been this far but she’s in the best form of her career and she should be all alone on the lead in this turf affair.  With defending champ Dank off form all year and not having raced since June, I’ll take a shot at beating her with this Chad Brown trained star.  The Euros will be charging hard in the lane.  If she can keep ’em at bay it could be a big pay day.  I’m throwing out Dank, maybe to my dismay, but you can’t bet everybody.  Putting #4 Dayatthespa in exactas with the 2, 5 , and 6.  Also trips and also boxing 2/5/6 in case Dayatthespa fades in the final panel.

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Race 6:  Filly and Mare Sprint:    #3 Stonetastic’s last race put her in a suicidal speed duel and she still hung on for third.  In this affair she’s the speed of the speed with a favorable draw and a track that favors the frontrunners.  Her race two back was an eye-popper and with the way she’s been training a return to a triple digit Beyer figure may be in order.  Grey will be getting gone from the git.  Back-to-back early speed on two different surfaces.  We’re at least guaranteed some excitement.  Hammer exotics with the 5 and the 6.

Race 7:  Turf Sprint: The turf sprint course at Santa Anita runs downhill before crossing the main track and finishing down the grassy lane.  Past Breeders’ Cups demand that you play a horse with experience on the course.  It means a lot in this race due to the downhill lay-out .  But if experience meant everything, we’d have never landed a man on the moon.  Besides, I’m in love with the #11 Undrafted and he’s never run at Santa Anita before.  Undrafted won the Jaipur back in June, sweeping past a stacked field and stealing my wagering heart.  This guy can fly.  After finishing a very respectable fourth in a G1 in England, Undrafted returned home and finished a close third in a stakes at this distance.  That screams prep and I believe he’s sitting on a huge run.  Look out late. He. Will. Be. Rolling.  Playing with 1/3/13.

Race 8:  Juvenile:  This one is simple.  When I watched #9 Carpe Diem win the Breeders Futurity I said, “I am betting this horse in the Breeders’ Cup.”  Like Tom Petty said, “I Won’t Back Down”.  Taking a stand and playing with 1 and 12.  The future is now, babes.

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Race 9: Turf:  Tough race. The Euros take command on the turf and this race features several solid invaders from over the pond.  The #4 Brown Panther is ultra consistent and has won five times at the distance.  He may not be quite as classy as the 1 or the 7, but I love horses that try every time and he fits that profile.  Plus, Arc runners don’t usually seem to run well in the Breeders’ Cup.  Maybe that’s got every thing to do with long travel off of a taxing run just three weeks ago.  Plus, what a great damn name for a racehorse.  His 8-1 odds off of a G1 European win warm the cockles.  Play with 1/10/12.  (I reserve the right to change my pick to the 1.)

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Race 10:  Sprint:  #6 Rich Tapestry hails from Hong Kong.  He flew into California earlier in the month and beat Goldencents and Secret Circle, who won the mile and the sprint here last year..  That’s a hell of an entrance.  Secret Circle will be one of his main rivals here today, but I think I can still get a price on Rich Tapestry.  Trainer thinks he can move forward off classy win. Sounds good to me. Heavy exacta play with 8 and 9.  Winner, winner, General Tso’s Chicken Dinner.

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Race 11: Mile:  I can’t get a good read on this race, so I’m just going to go with the best Euro horse and that’s the favorite, #5 Toronado.  Consistent miler looks the part.  The other Euros could easily step up and take this thing too.  Sure, leaning on chalk is always lame, but this horse is a deserving favorite. Multiple Group 1 wins, he loves the distance, he likes firm turf, and he’s versatile.  He’ll track Obviously and get first run, but if he drops back and traffic problems happen, he’s versatile enough to overcome that too.  Logical.  Playing with 2,4, and 8.

Race 12: Classic:  After days of hemming and hawing , I’m taking a stand against the 3-year-olds with longshot #2 Cigar Street.  This older, talented, but injury plagued monster is looking like he’s ready for a big run.  The three year olds just don’t quite do it for me.  California Chrome peaked early this year, Bayern will not be left alone on the lead with the presence of Moreno, Shared Belief is unbettable at 9-5, and Tonalist….well, okay I like Tonalist.  But Cigar Street is my play.  Trainer Bill Mott doesn’t just enter horses to enter them in big events and Cigar Street’s mere presence means that Mott believes. He may get the perfect trip, sitting just off the speed while cozy down by the rail.  Plus third race off the layoff may spring biggest effort to date. Upset special.  Keying with Tonalist and Shared Belief.

Good Luck and take these for what you will…..

 

 

 

 

 

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