The betting odds are in for Monday Night’s MLB Home Run Derby, and it’s time to pick some winners.
First off, let’s just all agree that the Home Run Derby is far and away the best all star event in any major sport. (Don’t give me the dunk contest, no one you’ve ever heard of participates). But I love the Derby. And what’s making it even cooler, is that Mark Trumbo will represent our Orioles.
Courtesy of OddsShark, here are the current lines:
Giancarlo Stanton +300
Mark Trumbo +375
Todd Frazier +500
Wil Myers +650
Adam Duvall +650
Carlos Gonzalez +800
Corey Seager +900
Robinson Cano +900
It seems crazy to give any of these guys 9 to 1 payout odds, but we have not only one, but two contestants with such odds.
The favorite is Giancarlo, but honestly I don’t think he’ll do all that well tonight. It always seems like the big guys never do as well. Probably a fatigue thing. Another X Factor is the Wil Myers is the hometown guy, and he’ll have the crowd behind him.
Here’s a look at how the bracket shapes up, photo via SB Nation.
Although I think Trumbo advances to round two, I don’t think Corey Seager is an easy out. And I think Stanton will use his raw power to get it done against Cano.
Round Two Pick: Trumbo vs Stanton
Probably everyone on the face of this earth will disagree with me, but I think the most intriguing first round match up is the Duvall and Myers bracket. I think this one’s a toss up, and I think either of these guys could win the whole thing, but I’ll go with Myers to come out on top, simply because he’ll have the crowd behind him. I don’t think CarGo really has much of a shot to win this thing, and Frazier’s already proven he’s got the Home Run Derby by the balls.
Round Two Pick: Myers vs Frazier
I’m gonna pick Mark Trumbo to come out of this side of the bracket, and beat Stanton, but it worries me because Stanton is such a streaky guy, that I can see him easily rattling off 6 homers in a row no problem. But I just don’t trust him in this contest for some reason. Just a gut feeling.
Again, I’m going with Wil Myers and the energy that the crowd will put behind him to beat Todd Frazier. But I don;t feel great about the pick.
Final Round: Trumbo vs Myers
I think this is where Trumbo gets gassed. Big guys always seem to get tired. I’m going with Wil Myers for the hometown victory
WINNER: Wil Myers
I don’t feel great about this pick, but I think the winner comes from the right side of the bracket. The winner will either be Myers, Frazier, or Duvall. And all of them have very favorable lines.
I know everyone will be jumping on Stanton and Trumbo as the big guys, but I’d advise taking some of the thinner, line drive hitters. They always seem to fare well in these things.
Due to the +650 line, smart money is on Wil Myers tonight. lay 100 bucks, win back $650.