Giddy Up, It’s Breeder’s Cup Weekend! Here Are Our Picks For Both Friday and Saturday.

Sports and Bets — October 30, 2015 at 12:09 am by

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The biggest weekend of the year has arrived for horseracing fans.  The 32nd Breeders’ Cup runs for two glorious days at Keeneland in Lexington, Kentucky.  Always full of incredibly competitive races featuring the world’s top thoroughbreds, this edition of the Breeder’s Cup features added drama as the historic American Pharoah goes for the first ever “Grand-Slam” of horseracing.  With the three Triple Crown races already notched on his bridle, Pharoah will attempt to add the Breeder’s Cup Classic to his already impressive resume.  Win or lose, the colt’s a Hall of Famer and a legend, but a Classic win would be awesome for the sport.  Everybody likes a winner, babes.

 

Speaking of winners, the Arc de Triomphe champion, Golden Horn, is in Keeneland as well and running in the Breeder’s Cup Turf.  He’s a pretty damn big deal.  Besides the Classic there are twelve other races to handicap, and wager on.  The best Sprinters in the world are here, a Triple Crown champion is here, as is the best turf horse in the world.  The list goes on. It’s an incredible two days of racing and wagering.  Every race is loaded and the payoffs are often large due to big fields and the quality of horses entered.  Most races are wide open and even the ones that don’t look that way initially, often enough end up that way when the dust (or turf) settles.  So buckle up, read the form, hit the ATM, and place your bets.  It’s the best weekend of the year….

Here are our picks for the all of the Breeder’s Cup races.   Take them for what you will…….

Keeneland Friday, October 30, 2015

Race 6- Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf-    #14 Hit It A Bomb is a hyped Euro invader coming off an easy win on the Dundalk (yes, Dundalk) synthetic over in Ireland.  Word is that he is favored in this race in many European books.  I for one am buying the hype.  The last field he blasted may not have been much, but he blasted them all the same.  And he broke his maiden at first asking in a 22 horse field.  His post position sucks, (Keeneland doesn’t normally run races at a mile, there will be a very short run to the first turn.) but jockey Ryan Moore is one of the best in the world and I’ve got faith that he can navigate Hit It A Bomb to a nice position.  He’s already navigated a 22 horse field for shit’s sake.  I’m hoping the post position keeps his odds in the 4-1 or better range.  I’ll take what supposed to be the most talented horse in the field at those odds all day long.  Using with #13 Cymric in a stone-cold exacta box play.

2. #13 Cymric    3. #7 Ray’s The Bar  4. #12 Camelot Kitten

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Race 7- Breeder’s Cup Dirt Mile-   I’m playing odds in this race.  #3 Liam’s Map is the most likely winner.  He should have run in the Classic (just my opinion) and on his current form he may just be better than this field.  But, at low odds, he’s not a win bet candidate.  He’s an must use in Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers, but for the win I’m looking at odds and playing accordingly.  I’ll be on the #5 Lea if I can get him at 9-2 or better. Lea is a multiple Grade 1 winner and a world class horse who’s won over $2 million.  He hasn’t won since January, but he’s been in the mix in all but one start and he may get a favorable pace set up here if the other speed horses can harass Liam’s Map early. Plus, Lea is 3 for 3 at a Mile.  If Lea gets over bet down to 3-1, I may look at #10 Valid.  Valid wins a lot, he tries his ass off every time he comes to the track and he has rated in the past.  If there is a pace meltdown and Valid can get first run at the leaders in the stretch he may be very dangerous.  But is he good enough????  Risky.  Hoping Lea holds pay potential at the windows.

 

Race 8- Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Phillies Turf-   I certainly may regret this, but I’m not as enamored with the Euro turf contingent in this race as I am in others.  #4 Catch a Glimpse has won her last two efforts and in her last she destroyed a field up at Woodbine on turf labeled good.  The second and third place fillies from that race came back to win stakes races, so she didn’t beat doo-doo, either.  She also boasts the best Beyer of the field.  Connections have been on fire lately too which always helps.    She may have to rate, as speedball Ruby Notion is directly to her right, and she’s never done that before.  But with Geroux in the irons and with odds that should stay at 5-1, I’ll bet that she can sit a stalking trip.  Hopefully she holds off the calvary charge late.

2. #12 Gliding By   3. #7 Sapphire Kitten   4. #3 Alice Springs

 

Race 9-   Breeder’s Cup Distaff-   I’ve been betting on # 14 Sheer Drama all year with very nice results.  She’s been in the exacta in all seven of her starts this year.  Sh’es 9-2 on the morning line and if she stays around that she’s a win bet.  She’s versatile, so the shitty post  draw doesn’t kill her and she’s got a bullet work in the holster.  Sheer Drama can stalk the pace, on paper it should be live one, and run down #7 Wedding Toast in the lane.   If, Sheer Drama gets bet down to short odds, or #1 I’m A Chatterbox is 8-1 or better, I may bet I’m a Chatterbox, but as of this moment, I’m on Sheer Drama.

2. I’m A Chatterbox  3. #7 Wedding Toast   4. #8 Curalina

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Keeneland- Saturday October 31, 2015

Race 3- Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Phillies-  To be completely honest, I may skip this race altogether.  #10 Songbird is as solid a favorite as there is all weekend.  #9 Rachel’s Valentina will be my bet if I can get 3-1, I think she’ll like the stretch out.  I really can’t see beyond these two here.  Maybe a stone cold exacta.  Boom.

3. #1 Land Over Sea     4. #2 Tap To It

 

Race 4- Breeder’s Cup Turf Sprint-   You could throw a dart at the form and pick a winner in this wide open event. It could easily be an ALL button wager on the multi-race bets menu.  Of course that means I like one of the favorites, #3 Undrafted.  Owned by Wes Welker, this millionaire gelding is training very well and may benefit nicely from the pace set-up that’s on paper.  Frankie Dettori gets the call as pilot and Dettori rode him to victory over at Royal Ascot. Undrafted can race over firm turf, or turf with some give in it.  From all accounts, the turf will probably be listed a good, which I see as a positive.  There is a negative to Undrafted and that may be price.  He’s getting a lot of buzz and if he ends up 3-1 or 5-2, I may lopok at #1 Pure Sensation.  6-1 on the morning line offers value here and this guy is two-for-two this year sprinting on the weeds.  In fact Pure Sensation ran a 43.4 half mile at this distance over good turf back in July and won by 3.5 lengths.  That’s serious speed.  The one post may hurt, but if Johnny V. deems he has to go from there, 43.4 speed that can carry is extremely dangerous.  This 1/3 exacta will definitely be in play.  Consistency and talent combo, babes.

3. Mongolian Saturday   4.  Green Mask

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Race 5- Breeder’s Cup Filly and Mare Sprint-   There’s speed galore signed on for this and I’m trying to take a stand against the favorite, #14 Cavorting.  I’m longshot hunting here with #7 Wavell Avenue .  In her last she was gaining on the leader La Verdad until she ran out of real estate.  She’ll get that distance here. Trainer Chad Brown has loved her training up to this and I feel she’s sitting on a big race.  Needs the speed duel.  Heavy play at what should be a big price.

2. Taris   3. Dame Dorothy   4. Judy The Beauty

 

Race 6- Breeder’s Cup Filly and Mare Turf-    I’m looking for #8 Dacita to upset the big bad Euro turf horses in this event.  I adored the move this horse made in the lane in her American debut; running down Tepin with a tremendous turn of foot.  She looked like she was shot out of goddamn howitzer.  Boooooom.  She’ll have some company in the lane this time, but I love her nose for the wire.  Plus, Chad Brown is Chad Brown and JJ Castellano is JJ Castellano.  At 8-1 she’ll be a big play.

2. #3 Legatissimo    3. #9 Miss France    4. #11 Stephanie’s Kitten

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Race 7- Breeder’s Cup Sprint-  This race has me a bit perplexed but, with the speed signed on, and all of the speed of the speed guaranteed to be a short price, I’ll take a stab at a stalker/closer.  #10 Salutos Amigos.  This guy’s been training well and he just missed beating Rock Fall in his last.  He’ll get the speed set up he needs here and his speed figures suggest he’s fast enough to win this.  If Runhappy or Private Zone run the race of all races then so be it, I’ll lose.  But I can’t resist getting a big price on an underrated horse.

2. #5 Runhappy     3. #7 Holy Boss   4. #13 Private Zone

 

Race 8- Breeder’s Cup Mile-   #12 Time Test is one of those scary Euros and I love him in this spot.  He’s versatile, any distance is his distance, and he can rate or close from way back.  His last effort was fantastic at this mile distance and it seems like the perfect prep for this.  Ryan Moore in the irons for this talented three-year-old shipper and that just adds to the appeal.  His morning line of 6-1 is all love too.  I think he’ll hover around there as the other Euro heavyweights and the likes of Tepin take money.  I also think the #10 Mshawish is real interesting here.  Looking to get paid, babes.

2. #10 Mshawish   3. Esoterique    4.  #3 Make Believe

 

Race 9- Breeder’s Cup Juvenile-  #10 Ralis isn’t getting a lot of hype this week and that’s perfect.  His last race was a mess in the slop at Belmont and I’ll throw it out on the grounds that he simply hated the muck and mud.  Like to see that Castellano on board and I love his 12-1 odds.   he’s never been around two turns before but that’s what trainers are for and besides, no longshot is perfect, babes.  He blasted rivals in the Hopeful and I like his stalking style for this contest.  He obviously ships well too and from the looks of his workouts, he’s been enjoying the Keeneland main track.  Bullet on the 16th tells us so.  Worth the risk?

2. #4 Unbridled Outlaw  3. #2 Riker 4. #7 Brody’s Cause

 

Race 10- Breeder’s Cup Turf-   #1 Golden Horn is the best turf horse on the planet right now and I have no desire to try and beat him.  Maybe the #9 Found can turn the tables, or maybe #10 Pizza Man, or #7 Big Blue Kitten will run the race of their lives. Or maybe my boy, #5 Da Big Hoss will thunder down the lane at 30-1 and pull the upset of the century. Or maybe the streak of an Arc winner never winning the Breeder’s Cup Turf will continue and Golden Horn simply won’t fire.  We’ll see, but I’m not messing with him.  Not now.  Come post time I may get brave and go bombs away, but right now, he’s a single in my pick four and that’s all.

2.#10 The Pizza Man    3.  #9 Found   4.   #7 Big Blue Kitten 

Race 11- Breeder’s Cup Classic-   With Beholder scratching, #4 American Pharoah should have it all his way.  Lone speed, great position, etc. etc.  But as much as I’ll love it if he wins, I’m trying to beat him with the #9 Honor Code.  Honor Code is a classy, classy horse and I think Shug has got him sitting on a huge effort.  Pharoah will be extremely tough, but remember when Liam’s Map was all alone on the lead in the Whitney?  Honor Code ran him down.  Since that performance, I’ve been waiting to bet him here.  His last race was simply a warm up for this and his works suggest this fact – he’s ready to fire in a big way.  Exacta box with AP; nd if I lose my win bet to horse as incredible as the Triple Crown winner, so be it.

3. #3  Frosted   4. #5 Gleneagles

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Good Luck to all!