Football Investing: Wagering On The Conference Games

Featured, Sports and Bets — January 17, 2014 at 8:04 pm by

There are only three NFL games left to bet on.  The first two of those games are on tap this Sunday in the AFC and NFC Conference Championship games.  The stakes are high with a trip to the Frozen Bowl up in New York on the line.  Both games are marquee matchups and wagering experts are predicting record-setting gambling figures for this Sunday.  So lock ’em and cock ’em, there’s a brand new pair of shoes out there waiting to be had, babes.  Here are our picks.

Seabass

Patriots at Broncos(-5.5)  It’s Manning vs Brady, blah, blah, fucking blah.  With the NFL and ESPN vomit hype machines in full churn mode this week, you would think that these two star quarterbacks were the only two players on the field.  I’ll bet if you broke it down between these two dudes, either one could give a shit about what the other has accomplished.  I’m so tired of the comparisons and breakdowns concerning these two; give it a rest.  Both are H.O.F.ers who are among the greatest to ever play.  One is not better than the other, they are both really fucking good.  Just enjoy watching them play and enjoy hating them, because it isn’t going to last much longer.  Meanwhile, there is a game going on with 90 other players suiting up.  The Broncos aren’t going to lose to this beat up Pats team twice.  Manning might throw for 400 against this secondary.  The Broncos will not simply hand the ball to Knowshon Moreno, they will air it up against a depleted defense.  On the other side of things, the Pats will definitely not have the same game plan this week that they did last week against the soft ass Colts.  Brady will be more involved.   Look for a well-played, tough football game, without the mistakes that plagued the Broncos the last time these two teams met.  I also have a feeling Wes Welker will be involved in a critical play.  Either he’ll catch a go ahead touchdown or key third down late, or he’ll play double agent and drop one that Manning puts right in his gut. But I think Denver wins this one and covers.  They’re just the more talented team.  I’m laying the 5.5.

49ers at Seattle (-3.5) Who isn’t looking forward to this one?  These two cauldrons of hate line up for the third time this season for all the marbles.  This rivalry has easily overtaken the Ravens/Steelers rivalry as the best in football.  Two physical, trash-talking, and supremely talented teams who fucking hate each other.  Hell, even the coaches hate each other in this one, something that can’t be said in the Ravens/Steelers rivalry.  Anyway, will this be a case of true home field advantage?   After all, the Hawks own the Niners up in dreary Seattle.  Or will this be a case of the hottest team getting the job done, because they’re playing the best football of anyone all year?  Of course hot team and home field is all probably just coach speak and hog wash, it’s really all about matchups, and matchup wise, this game is real close 85% of the time.  So I’ll take the points.  I do think that San Fran will win, they have been the overall best team in the NFC for 3 seasons, it’s time for them to finish with a championship.

Babes

The NFL could not be happier with these two matchups for the conference championships.  The Seattle Seahawks play host to the white hot San Fran 49ers, and Mighty Peyton Manning’s square off against the flying Tom Brady’s (more accurately the Denver Broncos against the New England Patriots).  Both games are rematches and in the case of Sea and San Fran the rubber matches. 

  There is a ridiculous trend that I touched on last week that teams that score 40 plus in the playoffs the week before are a staggering 3-22-2 ATS the following week.  That trend continued last week with Indy going down both SU and ATS against the Pats.  Well this time the Pats fall in that category and in their three previous contests where this trend applied to them, the Pats are 0-3 ATS.  However all three instances touted the Pats as seven plus point favorites, this is the first time Brady, Belichek, and company are falling into the trend as an underdog.  Looking at the matchup, the Pats are definitely coming into this contest brash with confidence stemming from their new-found power running game.  LeGarrette Blount is running like a top ten draft pick, and the Pats are just bulldozing teams up front right now.  This will allow Tom Brady to have continuing success against a Bronco secondary that is missing their best cover corner in Chris Clark.  The former Charger Quentin Jammer will take his place and Brady will look to feast on him all day. 

  On the other hand, the Broncos will also be looking to impose their will in the running game against a Pats crew that ranked a lowly 21st in the NFL against the run.  No Vince Wilfork, no Jerod Mayo, and no Brandon Spikes has a great deal to do with why the usually stout Pats have struggled this season.  I look for a heavy dose of Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball from the Denver offense to try and control the clock, and keep Tom Brady off the field.  I feel the Pats will try and do the same thing when they have the football to keep Peyton Manning and the most prolific offense in NFL history off the field.  This will be a very tightly played football game so I’m gonna take the under 56 points in this contest I see coming in around 41-45 points or so. 

  In the late game I’m also torn between the sides.  There is not a team that is playing better football then the Niners, but Seattle is an almost impossible place to get a road win.  Russell Wilson has lost one home game in two years, and that was a meaningless game.  As it stands now San Fran is getting three and the hook, and it’s tough to go against that but I’m going to.  This Seattle offense is sputtering right now a little bit from a lack of big plays in the passing game.  They got a big boost last week with the return of Percy Harvin, but he only lasted about a half before being knocked out with a concussion.  After Harvin, the Hawks have a tough time finding explosive plays in the passing game.  Of course Marshawn Lynch is an animal, as he runs with a combination of ferocity and explosiveness that is unparalleled in today’s game.  But if San Fran can manage to control him somehow, and the weight falls on Russell Wilson’s shoulders, then Seattle could be in trouble.  But watching Seattle play this year reminds me of watching those Bill Cowher coached Pittsburg Steeler teams in the early 2000’s.  They would run the ball effectively and make just enough plays in the passing game to get a lead and lean on their defense, and that’s what this Seattle team does.  I predict they do just that, get a lead early and work their run game and defense to a Super Bowl birth.  I’ll take the Hawks 20-14.

 

 

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