Odds Are Out On The Home Run Derby, And It’s Time To Gamble

Sports and Bets — July 10, 2017 at 2:22 pm by

 

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It’s no doubt baseball has the best All Star festivities in all of professional sports, and that kicks off tonight with the Home Run Derby. The derby is one of my favorite events of the year, for obvious reasons. You have the biggest guys hitting moon shots out of the park all night, and it’s a great gambling event. My friends and I always draw names out of a hat, two names per person, and whoever draws the winner gets the loot. This year I drew Justin Bour and Gary Sanchez, aka the 7th and 8th seeds. Fuck me.

But that’s neither here nor there.

The point is there are odds out there on which guy will win, so everyone has a fair way of betting. Here’s how they stack up this year.

 

2017 HOME RUN DERBY ODDS, via Oddsshark

 

Giancarlo Stanton: +200

Aaron Judge: +200

Cody Bellinger: +650

Miguel Sano: +700

Mike Moustakas: +1400

Gary Sanchez: +1200

Justin Bour: +1400

Charlie Blackmon: +1400

 

With odds like that, there’s some real money to be made. I’ll give you the guy who I think wins, the guy who I think has a decent shot to win with great value, and the guy with long shot odds who I think could sneak a victory and make a huge pay out.

 

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FAVORTIE TO WIN:

There are clearly two guys that stand out to you when looking at the lineup, and that’s Giancarlo and Aaron Judge. And Vegas obviously agrees, giving them both +200, or a 2-to-1 payout. Even though he’s a Yankee, I’m pretty excited to see how far Judge can hit the ball tonight. But I still think Stanton has an advantage being in his home park. He finished the first half of the year hot, and will come in looking to defend his 2016 crown. The crowd will be behind him, and although I don’t expect it to happen, there’s a chance Judge could be trying a little too hard in his first Derby.

MY PICK TO WIN THE 2017 DERBY: Giancarlo Stanton

 

VALUE PICK:

At +650 odds, I really like Cody Bellinger. I don’t expect him to win, as I just told you Stanton is my favorite. Although +200 makes for a good payout, I’m here looking for a great payout, and Cody Bellinger is your guy. He has 25 home runs in the first half, and that was after being called up 3 weeks into the season. If this guy played the whole year, he’d probably have matched Judge’s 30 bombs. The guy’s electric, and there’s not as much pressure on him as there is on Judge. If Aaron Judge didn’t exist, all of baseball would be buzzing about this guy. 6.5 to 1 is a great payout for this guy. Smart pick here.

 

LONG SHOT:

I liked Bellinger’s payout, but at +1200 I LOVE Gary Sanchez’s payout. I think he has the potential to light this thing up. He loves the spotlight, and is being outshadowed by other stars, but remember, Gary Sanchez was Aaron Judge before Aaron Judge was Aaron Judge. Sanchez lit up the MLB last year, and if it weren’t for being injured his 2017 home run totals would be much higher. Some have questioned his credentials to be in this derby, and I think he’ll use that as fuel. The only thing El Gary has working against him is he has the toughest first round matchup against Stanton. But if Stanton lays a stinker and Sanchez makes it out of that first round, he’s got a great chance of landing in the finals, where anything can happen. LOVE Gary Sanchez to be a dark horse here. Risk 100 bucks, but if you win you pay next month’s rent. You’re welcome.