Betting The Big Game Tonight: Only One Thing Matters

Featured, Sports and Bets — January 6, 2014 at 2:54 pm by

Usually when dissecting a potential football matchup you have to look at several different aspects of the upcoming contest.  Handicappers pour over the offensive and defensive statistics of both teams.   Special team units are studied. Team tendencies and coaching acumen come into play.  Hell, even weather, referees, and home field advantage matter when considering a “sports investment.”    It can be mind numbing and confusing.   But tonight’s matchup for the National Championship game is different, only one aspect of this game really matters.  Sure, other things than this particular aspect will contribute to the outcome of the game, but the crux of the matter comes down to this one simple matchup.  And that matchup is this: The running game of Auburn vs. the run defense of Florida State.   Forget all the “team of destiny’ crap and forget all of the quality of competition talk.  Just forget everything else.  If you think Auburn can run the football on Florida State, then take the points.  (Which are now 10.5)  If you think Florida State will stop the run, then bet Florida State.  Because if Florida State stops the run, forces a lot of three and outs, and keeps their own Jameis Winston on the field with the ball in his hands, then it will be a very long night for Auburn.  But is Auburn has success on first and second down with the run game and keeps Nick Marshall in makeable third down situations, then Auburn can control the clock and control the game.  Wintson and the ‘Noles are going to get theirs, but if Auburn can use that run attack as both an offensive and defensive weapon, then they’ll be hoisting that stupid looking glass ball at the end of the night.  That’s it, that’s all there is.

Personally, I think the Auburn Tigers will have success running the football.  They have dismantled quality defenses with that run game including Missouri, who they gashed for 545 yards in the SEC Chmapionship game; and Alabama, who they gained 296 yards on the ground against.  So I’ll take the points and bet the Tigers to win outright.  (Interesting fact: in the last 15 BCS Championships games, the spread has never been a factor.  Either the favorite covered, or the underdog won outright.)

Good Luck to all tonight, and enjoy the game.

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