Babes’ Fantasy Football: Players That Will Be Overvalued On Draft Day

Featured, Sports and Bets — July 15, 2014 at 3:57 pm by

by Babes
Right about now, fantasy players all across the country are cracking open their first fantasy magazine to study up for the upcoming season. In the next few weeks fantasy players will bombard themselves with lists of sleepers, busts, and can’t miss fantasy studs. Well I haven’t stopped studying fantasy football at all this offseason, and after countless mock drafts, I’ve compiled a list of players who are being overvalued in mock drafts.  It only stands to reason that these same players will be overvalued when the real drafting begins.

Any player taken in the right spot can offer value. But you also don’t want be the guy that takes the number one scoring defense from a year ago in the eighth round when there is simply no value in the pick. I’m not saying avoid these guys altogether, just make sure you let these players fall to you at the right spot.

Marshawn Lynch (RB Seattle): Yes, beast mode is still in effect, but there is one undeniable fact working against Lynch this year. He led the NFL in carries last year (when factoring in his playoff stats), and he’s toted the rock over 1,000 times in the last three years.  Huge workload absolutely played a major role in Arian Foster’s injury riddled season last year and history is not on Lynch’s side to stay healthy this year. He also has two talented backs behind him itching for playing time in Christine Michael and Robert Turbin.  Let someone else take the huge risk on Lynch in the middle of the first round, but if he is sitting there at the turn, then I would consider pairing him with a stud wideout.

Ryan Matthews (RB San Diego):The Charger bell cow actually played like one last year, and stayed healthy. That, however was probably an anomaly as Matthews is maybe the second most injury prone back in the league behind Darren McFadden. People are going to remember him as the back who lead the NFL in carries in the second half of last season and that will cause him to be over drafted. Even his own team doesn’t trust him enough, as they pulled off one of the most head scratching moves in free agency by signing Donald Brown to a year deal. That makes for a crowded backfield with Danny Woodhead also in town and it screams running back by committee. If Matthews is still there towards the end of the fourth round, that is where I would start to consider drafting him. Otherwise let somebody else deal with that headache of figuring out the committee.

Toby Gerhart (RB Jacksonville): I actually really like Gerhart this year for two reasons. One, I feel Jax will play much better defense this year, which will allow them to stay in games longer and thereby stay committed to their running game. Two, I think Gerhart is the type of rugged runner that, given the opportunity, can put up Zac Stacy type numbers from last year. That being said, people so far in mocks are jumping the gun in the late third round for Gerhart as a mid-level RB2. I see him more as a great flex option and would look to nab him in the early fifth round.

Knowshon Moreno/Lamar Miller (RBs Miami): This is a pain in the ass that I’m not going anywhere near this year. Lamar Miller frustrated the hell out of owners last year, and the fact that Miami even brought Moreno in shows that Miller is still not ready to shoulder the load. And of course even the most novice fantasy players know that Moreno’s production last year was a product of Peyton Manning’s success. Moreno faced more six man boxes then any other running back last year, by far. Ryan Tannehill, although improving, doesn’t exactly strike the same level of fear into opposing pass defenses. Unless Miller is hanging around in the seventh or eighth round, I’m staying away. As for Knowshon and his tears, I’m betting that he won’t come close to finishing the year standing upright with those battered knees.

Jordan Cameron (TE Cleveland): I was lucky enough to be on the Cameron train last year, and I get to keep him in one league I’m in. Unfortunately, I’m not a fan this year for three reasons. First and foremost, with no Josh Gordon, defenses will game plan to take Cameron out of games, as he is their most potent pass catcher (even as a tight end). Second, with no Norv Turner calling plays that showcase the tight end, Cameron will not find the free space he found last year. I’m not sure there is anybody better at scheming plays to open up the tight end then good old Norv, who is now calling plays for Minnesota and Kyle Rudolph. Thirdly, as many Cameron owners remember from last year, he had a propensity for disappearing in a lot of games down the stretch while Cleveland’s quarterback play was going downhill fast. With the combo of Brian Hoyer and Johnny Football at the helm, I’m not sure the same thing won’t happen again. Don’t over-draft Cameron, in fact I wouldn’t touch him before the ninth round.

Seattle Defense: Seattle is exactly the defense I was referring to earlier that some idiot will take as soon as all their starting roster spots are full. Every year people chase the dominant fantasy defense from the year before and then they watch in disbelief as that defense never lives up to expectations. Defensive fantasy scoring is almost impossible to predict because the number one fantasy defense usually got to that point by scoring defensive touchdowns. Of course Seattle is still stellar defensively, and I do have them in my top five, but I simply won’t own them this year because somebody else will reach for them. Looking at their schedule to start the season, Seattle opens at home against the Packers and Aaron Rodgers. Then they go to San Diego where Phillip Rivers is usually very careful with the ball, then home against Denver and Peyton Manning. I’m not starting them in any if those three games. Then they have a bye in week 4. I’ll go further to say I wouldn’t want to start them week 5 at the much improved Skins, week 6 at home against a powered Dallas offense, week 7 at St. Louis where they nearly lost last year, or at Carolina week 8. That first place schedule is no joke.

San Francisco Defense: The same concept applies to the usually tough Niner defense as it did with Seattle. I can’t find a good matchup for the Niner D until mid-November. No use drafting them anywhere until the final rounds.

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