An Interesting Nugget For All You Super Bowl Bettors

Featured, Sports and Bets — January 29, 2014 at 8:31 pm by

 Eight and two so far in the playoffs ain’t too bad Babes.  I’ve been on quite the roll and I’m gonna keep it coming on Sunday.  I’m still going to wait two more days before I make my pick on the game, just to get a more accurate weather forecast and to watch any line movements.  But I thought this was a very interesting trend that needed sharing.

Since 2000, if you look at the Super Bowl quarterback matchups you will find a very staggering piece of information.  If you designate the perceived better QB in each game, and then look at the game results, you will be very surprised.  The perceived better quarterback’s team has lost almost every game!  Out of 13 games there are two occurrences where the two QBs are perceived even, the first two Pittsburgh Super Bowls for Big Ben against Matt Hasselback and against Kurt Warner.    If you also throw out the Super Bowl where Peyton took on Rex Grossman, because there is so much of a gap between those two, that leaves us a sample size of ten games.  Ten Super Bowls where there was a clearly better perceived QB, and ATS those better QBs were 1-9!  And not only are they not covering, but they’re not winning either, as those teams are just 3-7 straight up. 

  How could this be?  Look at some of the matchups, the first three Super Bowls of this century were won by teams with stellar defensive units.  The 2000 Ravens and Trent Dilfer over the Giants and Kerry Collins, Tom Brady in his first season outlasted Kurt Warner, and Brad Johnson and the Bucs defeating Rich Gannon and the high powered offensive machine the Raiders had going.  Then Brady moves up as the better perceived QB over Jake Delhomme and Donovan McNabb, and the Pats win, but they don’t cover the next two Super Bowls.  Eli bests Brady twice and Brees beats Peyton.  In fact, the only win SU and ATS win by a perceived better quarterback is Aaron Rodgers over Big Ben.  You can argue at the time that Flacco and Kaepernick were maybe even, but in my mind the media darling at the time was Kaepernick.

  What could be the reasoning for such a staggering stat?  Basically the public is a sucker for a pretty offense.  That leads to inflated lines, and suddenly there is line value in taking the dog.  Obviously that would put Seattle in the driver’s seat this week as Peyton is the better quarterback of the two teams. But here is the difference; there is not much line value for Seattle because, as it stands right now, the line sits at Denver minus 2.  I need two more days to mull it over, but I can say that I feel pretty good about my first instinct on this one.

 

3 Comments

  1. Can you bullet this out? I’m confused

  2. How can you say the qb of the greatest show on turf is as good as Big Ben, what a joke

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