ALDS Game 3 Preview: Orioles at Tigers

Sports and Bets — October 5, 2014 at 3:11 pm by

After Friday’s thrilling win, the Birds are one win away from advancing to the ALCS. The last 13 teams that have gone up 2-0 in the ALDS have all went on to win the series (ESPN Stats & Info). It’s time to make it 14 straight, babes. Let’s get the fucking brooms out!

Game 3: Today at 3:45 PM on TBS

Bud Norris RHP (15-8) vs. David Price LHP (15-12)

Norris’ Season Stats: 165.1 IP, 139 Ks, 3.65 ERA, 1.22 WHIP

Norris’ Last Three Starts: 3-0, 18.1 IP, 23 Ks, 1.47 ERA, 0.98 WHIP

Price’s Season Stats: 248.1 IP, 271 Ks, 3.26 ERA, 1.08 WHIP

Price’s Last Three Starts: 1-1, 21.2 IP, 21 Ks, 3.32 ERA, 1.15 WHIP

Norris will try to punch the O’s ticket to the ALCS in his first postseason start. Norris has struggled against Detroit over his career, going 0-3 in four starts with a 6.57 ERA and 1.38 WHIP while striking out 18 over 24.2 innings. This season, Norris is 0-2 in two starts against the Tigers with a 6.39 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, and has struck out nine batters over 12.2 innings. His last start against the Tigers came on May 12, and the benches cleared after Norris drilled Torii Hunter. Norris also hasn’t been nearly as effective on the road this season. In 13 home starts, Norris has a 2.44 ERA and 1.16 WHIP, compared to 4.80 ERA and 1.27 WHIP over 15 road starts. The numbers don’t look too good for Norris, but he is coming off the best month of his season. Over five September starts, he went 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA and 1.09 WHIP while striking out 34 batters over 30.1 innings.

Price hasn’t had much success on the big stage over his career. In four starts (nine appearances) in the playoffs, Price is 1-4 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, and has struck out 30 batters over 32 innings. Price hasn’t been dominant since being acquired from Tampa Bay, but he’s still been pretty damn good. In 11 starts with Detroit, Price has gone 4-4 with a 3.59 ERA and 1.15 WHIP while striking out 82 batters over 77.2 innings. Price has sterling career numbers against the Birds. Over 17 starts, Price is 7-3 with a 2.82 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, and has struck out 100 batters over 108.1 innings. The O’s have done much better against Price recently, though. According to Steve Melewski, in Price’s last five starts against the Birds, he’s 1-1 with a 4.67 ERA, and the O’s have went on to win three of those games. This season, Price faced the Birds once back on May 8. As a member of the Rays, Price took the loss after giving up three runs on nine hits and a walk while striking out three over five innings.

Orioles Lineup with Career Numbers vs. Price
RF Nick Markakis (L) – 12-for-47
1B Steve Pearce (R) – 4-for-12 with a HR
CF Adam Jones (R) – 11-for-44
DH Nelson Cruz (R) – 10-for-28 with 3 HRs
LF Delmon Young (R) – 5-for-16 with a HR
SS J.J. Hardy (R) – 12-for-36
C Nick Hundley (R) – N/A
3B Ryan Flaherty (L) – N/A
2B Jonathan Schoop (R) – 1-for-2

Tigers Lineup with Career Numbers vs. Norris
2B Ian Kinsler (R) – 3-for-8 with a HR
RF Torii Hunter (R) – 3-for-12 with a HR
1B Miguel Cabrera (R) – 3-for-12
DH Victor Martinez (S) – 4-for-12 with a HR
LF J.D. Martinez (R) – N/A
C Alex Avila (L) – 0-for-10
3B Nick Castellanos (R) – 0-for-3
SS Andrew Romine (R) – 0-for-3
CF Don Kelly (L) – 2-for-7

Strengths to Watch

  • Delmon Young – Not only does the Game 2 hero boast excellent numbers against Price, but he’s raked in the playoffs and mashed against lefties over his career. Over 34 postseason games, Young is slashing .271/.326/.551 with nine HRs and 21 RBIs. Young is also a .302/.338/.467 lifetime hitter against southpaws. Keep doing you, big cat.

  • J.D. Martinez – It’s unbelievable that the Astros released this guy before the start of the season. The 27-year-old outfielder enjoyed a breakout campaign this season, hitting .315/.358/.553 with 23 HRs and 76 RBIs over 123 games. He’s been a thorn in the Orioles’ side through the first two games of the series, going 2-for-8 with two HRs and four RBIs.

Weaknesses to Watch

  • Detroit’s Bullpen – Man, these guys are fucking awful. Over the first two games of the series, the Tigers’ bullpen has allowed 11 runs (10 earned) in just 3.2 innings. I don’t even want to imagine how ugly those numbers would be if they didn’t get two shutout innings from Anibal Sanchez.
  • Orioles vs. Lefties – The O’s were solid, but unspectacular against starting left-handed pitchers this season. The Birds went 22-19 against them, which is a .537 winning percentage. Against right-handed starters, the Birds went 74-47, which is a .612 winning percentage.

Enjoy the game, and let’s go O’s!

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